NBA games

SAC @ PHX

NBA Mortgage Matchup Center ·Final
127–118
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4Q5T
SAC3624193216127
PHX312229297118

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (PHX) / 10 (SAC) games this season
SAC away
home PHX
46% 54%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
DeMar DeRozan S 43 34 3 3
De'Aaron Fox S 41 21 11 8
Domantas Sabonis S 39 20 12 5
Kevin Huerter S 35 17 7 4
Keegan Murray S 43 14 14 1
Trey Lyles 17 8 6 0
Keon Ellis 28 6 1 0
Malik Monk 8 4 3 2
Doug McDermott 11 3 0 0
Jordan McLaughlin 2 0 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Bradley Beal S 38 28 8 2
Devin Booker S 43 23 1 12
Tyus Jones S 40 22 2 4
Grayson Allen 27 9 1 3
Josh Okogie 16 9 5 0
Ryan Dunn S 21 8 2 0
Royce O'Neale 28 8 9 2
Mason Plumlee 26 6 11 6
Oso Ighodaro 10 5 2 1
Jusuf Nurkic S 15 0 7 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Ryan Dunn · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:42 Q1
"Ryan Dunn makes 10-foot driving floating jump shot (Devin Booker assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Devin Booker PHX
13%
2 De'Aaron Fox SAC
13%
3 Domantas Sabonis SAC
13%
4 Bradley Beal PHX
11%
5 Keegan Murray SAC
11%
6 DeMar DeRozan SAC
11%
7 Kevin Huerter SAC
10%
8 Jusuf Nurkic PHX
9%
9 Tyus Jones PHX
8%
10 Trey Lyles SAC
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
22%
Dunk
6%
Free Throw
16%
Jumper
40%
Layup
18%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 De'Aaron Fox SAC 24.2 4.9 5.0
2 Devin Booker PHX 23.6 4.2 6.4
3 DeMar DeRozan SAC 23.3 4.0 4.1
4 Domantas Sabonis SAC 22.3 12.1 6.7
5 Bradley Beal PHX 16.0 4.2 3.6
6 Keegan Murray SAC 13.7 7.9 1.8
7 Malik Monk SAC 12.8 3.6 2.7
8 Jusuf Nurkic PHX 12.3 9.7 1.6
9 Tyus Jones PHX 11.3 3.1 5.8
10 Royce O'Neale PHX 10.2 6.1 2.2
11 Kevin Huerter SAC 9.8 3.3 1.6
12 Grayson Allen PHX 7.7 2.6 1.2
13 Ryan Dunn PHX 6.6 2.6 1.2
14 Keon Ellis SAC 6.3 2.6 1.2
15 Josh Okogie PHX 5.6 1.9 1.1
16 Mason Plumlee PHX 4.7 4.6 1.0
17 Trey Lyles SAC 4.3 2.9 0.7
18 Monte Morris PHX 4.3 1.3 1.9
19 Bol Bol PHX 3.9 3.4 0.8
20 Doug McDermott SAC 3.7 1.0 0.4
21 Alex Len SAC 3.3 3.6 0.8
22 Oso Ighodaro PHX 3.2 2.5 0.9
23 Jordan McLaughlin SAC 2.9 1.3 1.4
24 Damion Lee PHX 2.7 0.8 0.7
25 Isaac Jones SAC 2.6 1.7 0.6
26 Colby Jones SAC 1.9 0.9 0.8

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.