NBA games

DAL @ DEN

NBA Ball Arena ·Final
120–122
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
DAL29343126120
DEN35253725122

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (DEN) / 10 (DAL) games this season
DAL away
home DEN
61% 39%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Kyrie Irving S 35 43 5 5
Luka Doncic S 41 24 9 9
Daniel Gafford S 34 16 7 3
Naji Marshall S 36 11 8 0
Klay Thompson S 33 10 5 4
Dwight Powell 14 7 5 1
Spencer Dinwiddie 20 5 0 4
Olivier-Maxence Prosper 8 2 1 0
Jaden Hardy 19 2 2 3
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Nikola Jokic S 38 37 18 15
Jamal Murray S 38 18 1 6
Michael Porter Jr. S 36 17 7 4
Peyton Watson S 40 16 5 1
Christian Braun S 35 14 6 2
Julian Strawther 23 12 1 1
Russell Westbrook 20 6 5 5
Zeke Nnaji 10 2 2 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jamal Murray · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:46 Q1
"Jamal Murray makes 5-foot driving floating jump shot (Nikola Jokic assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Luka Doncic DAL
14%
2 Jamal Murray DEN
11%
3 Daniel Gafford DAL
11%
4 Nikola Jokic DEN
10%
5 Kyrie Irving DAL
10%
6 Christian Braun DEN
9%
7 Michael Porter Jr. DEN
9%
8 Naji Marshall DAL
9%
9 Peyton Watson DEN
8%
10 Klay Thompson DAL
8%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
19%
Dunk
2%
Free Throw
23%
Jumper
18%
Layup
38%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Luka Doncic DAL 28.3 7.4 8.4
2 Nikola Jokic DEN 26.9 12.4 10.9
3 Kyrie Irving DAL 23.7 4.6 5.2
4 Michael Porter Jr. DEN 17.5 6.6 2.8
5 Jamal Murray DEN 16.3 3.6 4.0
6 Christian Braun DEN 15.5 5.6 1.8
7 Klay Thompson DAL 13.4 3.8 2.1
8 Russell Westbrook DEN 12.6 4.2 5.3
9 Julian Strawther DEN 11.0 2.8 1.7
10 Daniel Gafford DAL 10.6 6.4 1.3
11 Naji Marshall DAL 7.8 3.2 2.8
12 Peyton Watson DEN 7.6 3.5 1.2
13 Spencer Dinwiddie DAL 5.5 1.6 1.7
14 Jaden Hardy DAL 5.5 1.3 1.4
15 Zeke Nnaji DEN 4.8 2.3 0.7
16 Olivier-Maxence Prosper DAL 4.7 2.1 0.8
17 Hunter Tyson DEN 4.3 3.2 0.9
18 Quentin Grimes DAL 4.1 2.7 0.9
19 Brandon Williams DAL 3.8 1.0 1.1
20 DeAndre Jordan DEN 3.8 5.4 0.8
21 Dario Saric DEN 3.3 2.4 0.7
22 Trey Alexander DEN 2.8 1.4 1.1
23 Dwight Powell DAL 2.6 2.2 0.9
24 Kessler Edwards DAL 2.5 1.1 0.6
25 Spencer Jones DEN 1.5 0.8 0.2

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.