NBA games

GS @ OKC

NBA Paycom Center ·Final
127–116
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
GS26394220127
OKC33252137116

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (OKC) / 10 (GS) games this season
GS away
home OKC
44% 56%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Stephen Curry S 37 36 5 7
Jonathan Kuminga 26 20 5 1
De'Anthony Melton S 27 19 10 2
Andrew Wiggins S 35 18 8 5
Draymond Green S 31 8 4 11
Buddy Hield 21 8 5 2
Gary Payton II 12 7 1 1
Kyle Anderson 20 6 5 5
Moses Moody 11 3 0 0
Trayce Jackson-Davis S 5 2 2 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander S 34 24 5 4
Jalen Williams S 31 20 3 4
Luguentz Dort S 30 16 6 3
Cason Wallace 30 16 2 0
Ajay Mitchell 21 12 2 1
Isaiah Joe 23 10 4 2
Aaron Wiggins S 18 9 2 3
Dillon Jones 15 4 6 2
Alex Caruso 22 3 3 4
Ousmane Dieng 11 2 4 2

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Luguentz Dort · Layup (2 pts) · 11:40 Q1
"Luguentz Dort makes 1-foot layup (Aaron Wiggins assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Chet Holmgren OKC
12%
2 Jalen Williams OKC
12%
3 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC
12%
4 Trayce Jackson-Davis GS
11%
5 Andrew Wiggins GS
11%
6 Gary Payton II GS
9%
7 Stephen Curry GS
9%
8 Draymond Green GS
8%
9 Luguentz Dort OKC
8%
10 Cason Wallace OKC
8%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
27%
Dunk
6%
Free Throw
21%
Jumper
22%
Layup
24%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC 24.9 6.1 6.1
2 Jalen Williams OKC 19.1 6.0 5.0
3 Chet Holmgren OKC 18.4 8.9 2.6
4 Stephen Curry GS 17.7 4.4 5.3
5 Buddy Hield GS 15.2 4.6 2.6
6 Andrew Wiggins GS 14.4 4.5 2.1
7 Jonathan Kuminga GS 14.3 4.7 2.0
8 Brandin Podziemski GS 11.7 5.2 3.7
9 Draymond Green GS 9.8 5.3 4.2
10 Luguentz Dort OKC 9.5 3.5 1.5
11 Moses Moody GS 9.3 2.7 1.3
12 Aaron Wiggins OKC 8.9 4.3 1.8
13 De'Anthony Melton GS 8.8 2.8 3.0
14 Trayce Jackson-Davis GS 8.6 4.7 2.2
15 Isaiah Joe OKC 8.3 3.0 1.4
16 Cason Wallace OKC 6.9 3.8 1.6
17 Kyle Anderson GS 6.2 3.7 2.2
18 Kevon Looney GS 5.9 7.3 1.2
19 Ajay Mitchell OKC 5.6 1.8 1.6
20 Ousmane Dieng OKC 5.5 3.6 0.9
21 Gary Payton II GS 5.4 2.4 1.2
22 Lindy Waters III GS 5.4 2.1 1.2
23 Alex Caruso OKC 5.1 3.2 1.9
24 Dillon Jones OKC 3.2 2.3 1.1
25 Malevy Leons OKC 3.1 2.2 0.6
26 Gui Santos GS 2.9 1.6 0.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.