NBA games

MIA @ MIN

NBA Target Center ·Final
95–94
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MIA2725162795
MIN2031202394

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (MIN) / 10 (MIA) games this season
MIA away
home MIN
39% 61%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Tyler Herro S 34 26 6 3
Nikola Jovic 23 15 7 1
Terry Rozier S 32 11 4 1
Bam Adebayo S 39 9 7 7
Duncan Robinson 17 8 2 2
Jaime Jaquez Jr. 16 7 5 1
Haywood Highsmith S 33 7 2 0
Kevin Love S 13 6 6 2
Kel'el Ware 9 4 0 0
Josh Richardson 20 2 4 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Anthony Edwards S 37 22 5 6
Julius Randle S 36 17 6 6
Naz Reid 23 15 3 2
Nickeil Alexander-Walker 26 12 3 1
Jaden McDaniels S 33 9 6 1
Donte DiVincenzo 29 8 6 2
Rudy Gobert S 33 7 13 1
Mike Conley S 24 4 5 3

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Anthony Edwards · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:44 Q1
"Anthony Edwards makes 24-foot three point step back jumpshot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Anthony Edwards MIN
36%
2 Bam Adebayo MIA
10%
3 Jimmy Butler III MIA
9%
4 Rudy Gobert MIN
8%
5 Julius Randle MIN
7%
6 Jaden McDaniels MIN
6%
7 Tyler Herro MIA
6%
8 Nikola Jovic MIA
6%
9 Mike Conley MIN
6%
10 Terry Rozier MIA
5%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
49%
Dunk
1%
Free Throw
35%
Jumper
6%
Layup
10%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Anthony Edwards MIN 25.3 5.9 4.1
2 Julius Randle MIN 22.8 6.7 5.0
3 Tyler Herro MIA 22.2 4.6 5.3
4 Jimmy Butler III MIA 17.0 4.9 4.4
5 Bam Adebayo MIA 16.0 8.1 3.3
6 Naz Reid MIN 13.8 5.8 1.8
7 Terry Rozier MIA 13.7 4.4 4.5
8 Donte DiVincenzo MIN 12.6 3.3 4.1
9 Rudy Gobert MIN 12.2 10.8 1.8
10 Jaden McDaniels MIN 10.5 3.3 1.9
11 Nickeil Alexander-Walker MIN 9.0 3.1 2.7
12 Luka Garza MIN 8.6 3.8 0.8
13 Jaime Jaquez Jr. MIA 8.5 5.5 2.2
14 Mike Conley MIN 8.4 3.0 4.3
15 Nikola Jovic MIA 7.9 3.1 1.7
16 Haywood Highsmith MIA 7.8 3.3 1.0
17 Josh Minott MIN 7.8 3.6 0.9
18 Duncan Robinson MIA 7.4 1.9 1.6
19 Pelle Larsson MIA 6.4 1.7 1.7
20 Rob Dillingham MIN 6.3 1.7 3.1
21 Alec Burks MIA 5.7 1.9 1.5
22 Josh Richardson MIA 5.4 2.0 1.7
23 Kel'el Ware MIA 5.0 3.2 0.5
24 Thomas Bryant MIA 4.6 3.0 0.8
25 Terrence Shannon Jr. MIN 4.1 1.9 1.3
26 PJ Dozier MIN 3.3 1.3 0.8
27 Kevin Love MIA 3.1 0.6 0.4
28 Dru Smith MIA 2.6 1.5 1.3
29 Joe Ingles MIN 1.8 1.0 1.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.