NBA games

CHA @ PHI

NBA Xfinity Mobile Arena ·Final
105–107
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4Q5T
CHA153021318105
PHI1630302110107

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (PHI) / 10 (CHA) games this season
CHA away
home PHI
48% 52%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
LaMelo Ball S 41 38 4 8
Brandon Miller S 41 22 7 2
Grant Williams 38 17 4 2
Cody Martin 32 7 6 5
Seth Curry 15 5 1 0
Tre Mann 16 5 0 0
Moussa Diabate 23 4 11 1
Taj Gibson S 13 3 6 0
Josh Green S 27 2 2 2
Tidjane Salaun S 19 2 9 2
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jared McCain 31 27 3 2
Guerschon Yabusele 31 20 8 0
Paul George S 33 15 3 9
Andre Drummond S 24 13 10 0
Jeff Dowtin Jr. 23 11 2 0
Kelly Oubre Jr. S 32 8 5 3
Kyle Lowry S 33 8 4 5
Caleb Martin S 41 5 5 3
Eric Gordon 17 0 0 2

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
LaMelo Ball · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:34 Q1
"LaMelo Ball makes 9-foot driving floating jump shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 LaMelo Ball CHA
18%
2 Paul George PHI
13%
3 Kelly Oubre Jr. PHI
12%
4 Andre Drummond PHI
11%
5 Taj Gibson CHA
8%
6 Caleb Martin PHI
8%
7 Brandon Miller CHA
8%
8 Tidjane Salaun CHA
8%
9 Kyle Lowry PHI
7%
10 Josh Green CHA
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
26%
Dunk
2%
Free Throw
10%
Jumper
46%
Layup
17%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 LaMelo Ball CHA 25.4 4.8 6.7
2 Tre Mann CHA 17.3 3.8 4.1
3 Paul George PHI 16.5 5.1 4.0
4 Kelly Oubre Jr. PHI 16.2 4.2 1.9
5 Brandon Miller CHA 16.0 4.1 3.0
6 Caleb Martin PHI 11.7 5.2 2.8
7 Andre Drummond PHI 10.4 10.0 1.4
8 Cody Martin CHA 9.8 4.2 1.6
9 Grant Williams CHA 9.6 4.2 2.5
10 Guerschon Yabusele PHI 8.8 4.1 1.9
11 Kyle Lowry PHI 7.9 2.7 3.5
12 Jared McCain PHI 7.9 2.4 1.4
13 KJ Martin PHI 6.6 3.4 1.0
14 Tidjane Salaun CHA 6.5 4.3 1.3
15 Seth Curry CHA 6.5 2.4 1.3
16 Eric Gordon PHI 6.5 1.6 1.3
17 Josh Green CHA 5.6 1.8 1.0
18 Ricky Council IV PHI 5.4 2.0 1.0
19 Nick Smith Jr. CHA 5.1 1.5 1.1
20 Jeff Dowtin Jr. PHI 4.5 1.6 1.8
21 Moussa Diabate CHA 4.2 5.5 0.8
22 Reggie Jackson PHI 4.0 1.3 1.6
23 Taj Gibson CHA 3.6 2.9 0.6
24 Vasilije Micic CHA 3.5 1.8 1.8
25 Justin Edwards PHI 3.3 1.4 0.4
26 Jared Rhoden CHA 3.0 1.9 0.9
27 Adem Bona PHI 2.7 1.7 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.