NBA games

WSH @ ORL

NBA Kia Center ·Final
94–121
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
WSH2234162294
ORL26353030121

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (ORL) / 10 (WSH) games this season
WSH away
home ORL
34% 66%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jordan Poole S 31 24 4 1
Bilal Coulibaly S 37 20 6 6
Kyshawn George S 34 15 7 1
Alex Sarr S 25 11 3 4
Jonas Valanciunas 18 8 3 1
Bub Carrington S 31 4 2 3
Jared Butler 9 4 1 1
Corey Kispert 25 2 4 2
Johnny Davis 5 2 0 0
Marvin Bagley III 9 2 1 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Franz Wagner S 29 23 4 7
Cole Anthony 15 16 2 0
Moritz Wagner 23 16 6 2
Anthony Black 22 12 2 4
Tristan da Silva S 32 11 4 2
Goga Bitadze S 22 10 12 3
Jett Howard 5 9 0 0
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope S 28 8 5 3
Gary Harris 19 6 1 0
Jalen Suggs S 18 5 3 2

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Bilal Coulibaly · Layup (2 pts) · 11:09 Q1
"Bilal Coulibaly makes two point shot (Alexandre Sarr assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Franz Wagner ORL
13%
2 Jalen Suggs ORL
12%
3 Bilal Coulibaly WSH
11%
4 Jonas Valanciunas WSH
11%
5 Jordan Poole WSH
10%
6 Alex Sarr WSH
10%
7 Goga Bitadze ORL
9%
8 Kentavious Caldwell-Pope ORL
9%
9 Bub Carrington WSH
8%
10 Tristan da Silva ORL
8%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
24%
Dunk
5%
Free Throw
20%
Jumper
24%
Layup
26%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Franz Wagner ORL 22.5 5.2 4.9
2 Jalen Suggs ORL 18.9 5.6 5.0
3 Jordan Poole WSH 18.8 2.6 4.4
4 Bilal Coulibaly WSH 14.9 5.4 2.3
5 Corey Kispert WSH 11.5 3.0 1.6
6 Jonas Valanciunas WSH 11.5 6.9 2.5
7 Moritz Wagner ORL 11.3 4.7 1.4
8 Bub Carrington WSH 10.9 4.6 4.1
9 Alex Sarr WSH 10.4 6.3 2.1
10 Anthony Black ORL 9.7 3.6 4.1
11 Kyshawn George WSH 9.4 4.1 2.8
12 Kentavious Caldwell-Pope ORL 8.4 3.0 1.9
13 Tristan da Silva ORL 7.5 2.8 1.5
14 Goga Bitadze ORL 6.5 7.0 1.1
15 Jared Butler WSH 5.9 1.5 3.3
16 Jonathan Isaac ORL 5.7 3.4 0.6
17 Gary Harris ORL 5.7 2.1 0.9
18 Cole Anthony ORL 5.1 2.4 2.4
19 Patrick Baldwin Jr. WSH 4.5 2.0 0.7
20 Jett Howard ORL 4.5 1.7 0.7
21 Cory Joseph ORL 3.8 1.4 0.9
22 Johnny Davis WSH 3.7 1.8 0.8
23 Richaun Holmes WSH 3.5 2.6 0.4
24 Marvin Bagley III WSH 3.3 2.9 0.5
25 Anthony Gill WSH 3.2 1.0 0.6
26 Caleb Houstan ORL 3.1 1.3 0.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.