NBA games

NY @ IND

NBA Gainbridge Fieldhouse ·Final
121–132
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
NY26353327121
IND29293440132

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (IND) / 10 (NY) games this season
NY away
home IND
36% 64%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jalen Brunson S 41 33 6 10
Karl-Anthony Towns S 39 30 9 0
OG Anunoby S 36 25 4 2
Josh Hart S 43 16 10 6
Mikal Bridges S 42 8 7 4
Miles McBride 29 7 1 1
Jericho Sims 9 2 2 0
Tyler Kolek 2 0 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Bennedict Mathurin S 41 38 8 2
Tyrese Haliburton S 35 35 2 14
Myles Turner S 39 26 6 1
Pascal Siakam S 34 14 8 3
Jarace Walker 27 6 4 0
T.J. McConnell 16 6 0 3
Quenton Jackson 11 4 1 1
Ben Sheppard S 23 3 1 1
Johnny Furphy 4 0 1 0
Enrique Freeman 9 0 1 2

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Josh Hart · Layup (2 pts) · 11:15 Q1
"Josh Hart makes two point shot (Jalen Brunson assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Pascal Siakam IND
10%
2 Jalen Brunson NY
10%
3 OG Anunoby NY
9%
4 Karl-Anthony Towns NY
9%
5 Tyrese Haliburton IND
9%
6 Myles Turner IND
9%
7 Mikal Bridges NY
9%
8 Bennedict Mathurin IND
8%
9 Josh Hart NY
7%
10 Andrew Nembhard IND
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
24%
Dunk
5%
Free Throw
18%
Jumper
29%
Layup
24%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jalen Brunson NY 24.5 3.2 6.1
2 Karl-Anthony Towns NY 23.1 12.0 3.1
3 Pascal Siakam IND 19.7 6.0 4.7
4 Mikal Bridges NY 16.3 3.6 3.4
5 Myles Turner IND 16.3 6.9 1.9
6 Bennedict Mathurin IND 16.1 5.6 2.2
7 Tyrese Haliburton IND 15.7 4.4 7.2
8 OG Anunoby NY 15.1 4.7 2.7
9 Josh Hart NY 12.6 7.4 4.5
10 Miles McBride NY 12.5 2.9 3.1
11 Obi Toppin IND 8.8 3.1 1.5
12 T.J. McConnell IND 8.6 2.4 3.9
13 Andrew Nembhard IND 7.8 2.1 3.7
14 Ben Sheppard IND 6.9 2.2 1.3
15 Aaron Nesmith IND 6.7 2.7 0.9
16 Tyler Kolek NY 6.6 1.8 1.8
17 Quenton Jackson IND 5.8 2.0 1.7
18 Enrique Freeman IND 5.3 3.5 0.9
19 Pacome Dadiet NY 5.2 2.0 0.5
20 Jarace Walker IND 5.2 2.5 1.1
21 Jericho Sims NY 3.5 4.4 0.6
22 Ariel Hukporti NY 3.0 3.0 0.4
23 James Johnson IND 2.5 1.3 0.6
24 Jacob Toppin NY 1.3 0.8 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.