BOS @ MIL
NBA
Fiserv Forum
·Final
113–107
Final
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS | 30 | 28 | 29 | 26 | 113 |
| MIL | 40 | 29 | 15 | 23 | 107 |
Statlab take
baseline_gbm
Last 10 (MIL) / 10 (BOS) games this season
BOS
away
home
MIL
81%
19%
GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.
Box score
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jayson Tatum S | 40 | 31 | 12 | 6 |
| Payton Pritchard | 23 | 18 | 1 | 3 |
| Jrue Holiday S | 33 | 15 | 2 | 3 |
| Derrick White S | 36 | 15 | 6 | 6 |
| Jaylen Brown S | 37 | 14 | 5 | 4 |
| Al Horford S | 32 | 9 | 7 | 4 |
| Neemias Queta | 21 | 8 | 7 | 0 |
| Sam Hauser | 12 | 3 | 1 | 1 |
| Luke Kornet | 6 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
First basket
scorer · ROC 0.80Actual
Giannis Antetokounmpo ·
Free Throw (1 pts) · 11:47 Q1
"Giannis Antetokounmpo makes free throw 1 of 2"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1
Giannis Antetokounmpo
MIL
16%
2
Jayson Tatum
BOS
12%
3
Jaylen Brown
BOS
12%
4
Derrick White
BOS
9%
5
Damian Lillard
MIL
9%
6
Jrue Holiday
BOS
8%
7
Brook Lopez
MIL
8%
8
Andre Jackson Jr.
MIL
7%
9
Taurean Prince
MIL
7%
10
Al Horford
BOS
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
0%
Dunk
4%
Free Throw
72%
Jumper
6%
Layup
18%
Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.
Statlab projections
| # | Player | Team | Pred PTS | Pred REB | Pred AST |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jayson Tatum | BOS | 28.3 | 7.1 | 5.6 |
| 2 | Giannis Antetokounmpo | MIL | 28.2 | 11.5 | 5.2 |
| 3 | Damian Lillard | MIL | 25.8 | 4.7 | 6.6 |
| 4 | Jaylen Brown | BOS | 23.0 | 5.4 | 3.6 |
| 5 | Derrick White | BOS | 19.3 | 4.7 | 4.0 |
| 6 | Payton Pritchard | BOS | 15.7 | 3.2 | 2.7 |
| 7 | Jrue Holiday | BOS | 13.9 | 4.0 | 3.8 |
| 8 | Bobby Portis | MIL | 12.1 | 8.2 | 1.3 |
| 9 | Brook Lopez | MIL | 10.1 | 5.1 | 1.5 |
| 10 | Al Horford | BOS | 8.9 | 4.8 | 1.9 |
| 11 | Sam Hauser | BOS | 8.4 | 4.7 | 1.4 |
| 12 | Taurean Prince | MIL | 7.8 | 4.1 | 1.7 |
| 13 | Neemias Queta | BOS | 5.6 | 5.6 | 0.7 |
| 14 | AJ Green | MIL | 5.5 | 1.4 | 1.0 |
| 15 | Luke Kornet | BOS | 5.3 | 4.6 | 1.3 |
| 16 | Pat Connaughton | MIL | 5.3 | 2.4 | 1.6 |
| 17 | Drew Peterson | BOS | 5.1 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 18 | Andre Jackson Jr. | MIL | 4.3 | 2.6 | 1.2 |
| 19 | Xavier Tillman | BOS | 4.1 | 3.4 | 0.8 |
| 20 | Ryan Rollins | MIL | 3.7 | 1.7 | 1.1 |
| 21 | Tyler Smith | MIL | 3.6 | 2.9 | 0.5 |
| 22 | Jordan Walsh | BOS | 3.5 | 2.0 | 0.6 |
| 23 | MarJon Beauchamp | MIL | 3.4 | 1.5 | 0.6 |
| 24 | Stanley Umude | MIL | 3.3 | 1.6 | 0.6 |
| 25 | AJ Johnson | MIL | 3.0 | 1.1 | 1.9 |
| 26 | Delon Wright | MIL | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.7 |
| 27 | Chris Livingston | MIL | 1.7 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.