NBA games

HOU @ DET

NBA Little Caesars Arena ·Final
101–99
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
HOU20232929101
DET1728193599

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (DET) / 10 (HOU) games this season
HOU away
home DET
67% 33%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Alperen Sengun S 30 27 10 2
Tari Eason 27 18 9 1
Jalen Green S 34 15 5 3
Dillon Brooks S 34 14 2 1
Amen Thompson 23 8 5 3
Fred VanVleet S 37 7 7 7
Jabari Smith Jr. S 26 6 7 0
Reed Sheppard 11 3 3 2
Jock Landale 17 3 5 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Cade Cunningham S 36 26 8 9
Isaiah Stewart S 33 16 8 1
Malik Beasley 27 15 2 3
Tim Hardaway Jr. S 30 10 4 2
Tobias Harris S 35 9 8 1
Jaden Ivey S 34 8 7 2
Paul Reed 15 6 4 1
Simone Fontecchio 17 5 4 2
Ronald Holland II 13 4 1 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Isaiah Stewart · Layup (2 pts) · 11:05 Q1
"Isaiah Stewart makes tip shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Alperen Sengun HOU
13%
2 Cade Cunningham DET
13%
3 Tobias Harris DET
11%
4 Jaden Ivey DET
11%
5 Fred VanVleet HOU
10%
6 Jalen Green HOU
9%
7 Jabari Smith Jr. HOU
9%
8 Isaiah Stewart DET
9%
9 Dillon Brooks HOU
8%
10 Tim Hardaway Jr. DET
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
9%
Dunk
12%
Free Throw
14%
Jumper
32%
Layup
33%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Cade Cunningham DET 25.4 7.2 8.1
2 Jalen Green HOU 22.0 4.5 3.4
3 Jaden Ivey DET 21.5 4.6 4.2
4 Alperen Sengun HOU 17.5 10.2 4.1
5 Tobias Harris DET 15.2 7.5 2.6
6 Fred VanVleet HOU 14.3 3.5 5.5
7 Tim Hardaway Jr. DET 12.1 2.1 2.1
8 Jabari Smith Jr. HOU 11.8 6.4 1.4
9 Amen Thompson HOU 11.5 5.9 2.0
10 Dillon Brooks HOU 11.3 3.9 1.3
11 Malik Beasley DET 11.3 2.5 1.7
12 Tari Eason HOU 9.5 4.5 1.6
13 Isaiah Stewart DET 6.5 6.9 2.0
14 Simone Fontecchio DET 6.3 3.3 0.9
15 Ronald Holland II DET 5.9 2.6 0.8
16 Cole Swider DET 5.3 2.5 0.9
17 Jock Landale HOU 4.8 2.7 0.7
18 Jack McVeigh HOU 4.6 1.9 0.6
19 Aaron Holiday HOU 4.3 1.2 1.0
20 Reed Sheppard HOU 4.2 1.7 1.5
21 Paul Reed DET 4.1 2.9 1.2
22 Jeff Green HOU 3.8 1.6 0.7
23 Jae'Sean Tate HOU 3.3 2.5 0.7
24 Wendell Moore Jr. DET 3.0 1.6 0.4
25 Marcus Sasser DET 2.4 0.7 1.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.