NBA games

TOR @ LAC

NBA Intuit Dome ·Final
103105
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
TOR22252333103
LAC28242924105

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (LAC) / 10 (TOR) games this season
TOR away
home LAC
24% 76%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Ochai Agbaji S 36 21 7 3
Immanuel Quickley S 26 21 3 4
Gradey Dick S 34 15 0 2
Chris Boucher 24 14 6 0
RJ Barrett S 30 13 6 3
Davion Mitchell 22 7 4 4
Jakob Poeltl S 30 5 12 3
Bruno Fernando 9 4 2 3
Jamison Battle 14 3 2 1
Jonathan Mogbo 9 0 2 3
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Norman Powell S 35 24 3 3
James Harden S 34 24 12 7
Kevin Porter Jr. 22 15 6 5
Ivica Zubac S 38 14 12 1
Nicolas Batum 17 7 3 2
Kris Dunn 20 7 3 0
Amir Coffey 23 6 1 0
Derrick Jones Jr. S 19 4 1 0
Terance Mann S 29 4 5 0
Kai Jones 4 0 1 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Gradey Dick · Free Throw (1 pts) · 11:30 Q1
"Gradey Dick makes free throw 1 of 2"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 RJ Barrett TOR
13%
2 Ivica Zubac LAC
13%
3 Jakob Poeltl TOR
12%
4 Gradey Dick TOR
12%
5 James Harden LAC
11%
6 Norman Powell LAC
9%
7 Derrick Jones Jr. LAC
8%
8 Terance Mann LAC
7%
9 Ochai Agbaji TOR
7%
10 Davion Mitchell TOR
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
14%
Dunk
4%
Free Throw
4%
Jumper
52%
Layup
27%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 RJ Barrett TOR 25.1 5.0 6.3
2 Norman Powell LAC 23.8 4.0 3.0
3 James Harden LAC 22.9 7.1 10.7
4 Ivica Zubac LAC 17.7 12.0 3.1
5 Gradey Dick TOR 17.4 3.7 2.4
6 Jakob Poeltl TOR 16.4 10.7 3.1
7 Ochai Agbaji TOR 12.5 4.6 2.0
8 Derrick Jones Jr. LAC 12.1 3.9 1.5
9 Davion Mitchell TOR 10.5 2.6 5.4
10 Amir Coffey LAC 10.2 2.6 1.3
11 Kevin Porter Jr. LAC 9.2 3.7 3.1
12 Chris Boucher TOR 8.1 3.6 0.8
13 Jordan Miller LAC 7.2 2.2 1.3
14 Kris Dunn LAC 6.8 3.5 2.2
15 Terance Mann LAC 6.7 3.2 1.8
16 Jamal Shead TOR 6.6 1.5 3.9
17 Bones Hyland LAC 6.0 2.5 1.2
18 Jonathan Mogbo TOR 5.3 4.2 1.6
19 Jamison Battle TOR 5.1 2.2 0.9
20 Nicolas Batum LAC 4.9 2.9 1.8
21 Kobe Brown LAC 4.9 3.7 1.6
22 Kai Jones LAC 3.5 2.9 0.6
23 Bruno Fernando TOR 3.4 3.3 0.7

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.