NBA games

CHI @ ATL

NBA State Farm Arena ·Final
125–113
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
CHI24363035125
ATL37332815113

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (ATL) / 10 (CHI) games this season
CHI away
home ATL
44% 56%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Ayo Dosunmu 31 19 2 4
Coby White S 33 18 4 5
Zach LaVine S 32 18 2 7
Nikola Vucevic S 31 18 12 1
Josh Giddey S 25 13 6 7
Julian Phillips 14 10 4 0
Jalen Smith 17 10 5 2
Patrick Williams S 29 10 7 3
Dalen Terry 14 9 4 1
Matas Buzelis 5 0 1 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Clint Capela S 26 20 9 1
Jalen Johnson S 34 20 6 5
Zaccharie Risacher S 30 17 2 0
Dyson Daniels S 36 16 8 3
Trae Young S 38 14 3 16
Onyeka Okongwu 22 8 7 1
Garrison Mathews 19 8 1 0
Larry Nance Jr. 14 6 2 2
Keaton Wallace 19 4 1 2
David Roddy 2 0 0 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Dyson Daniels · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:12 Q1
"Dyson Daniels makes 7-foot two point shot (Trae Young assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Trae Young ATL
16%
2 Jalen Johnson ATL
10%
3 Clint Capela ATL
9%
4 Nikola Vucevic CHI
9%
5 Kobe Bufkin ATL
8%
6 Dyson Daniels ATL
7%
7 Josh Giddey CHI
7%
8 Coby White CHI
7%
9 Zaccharie Risacher ATL
7%
10 Ayo Dosunmu CHI
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
30%
Dunk
3%
Free Throw
13%
Jumper
25%
Layup
30%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Trae Young ATL 26.6 4.2 11.4
2 Nikola Vucevic CHI 23.0 10.0 4.0
3 Jalen Johnson ATL 21.9 10.5 5.8
4 Zach LaVine CHI 21.5 4.5 3.3
5 Coby White CHI 21.0 4.0 5.8
6 Kobe Bufkin ATL 17.4 3.4 4.4
7 Josh Giddey CHI 15.3 6.2 7.1
8 Dyson Daniels ATL 14.7 4.9 2.7
9 Zaccharie Risacher ATL 12.9 4.3 1.9
10 Ayo Dosunmu CHI 12.7 4.8 3.8
11 Onyeka Okongwu ATL 11.1 6.3 1.9
12 Garrison Mathews ATL 11.0 2.2 2.0
13 David Roddy ATL 10.9 5.5 2.6
14 Clint Capela ATL 10.5 7.6 1.5
15 Patrick Williams CHI 10.4 4.8 2.1
16 Jalen Smith CHI 8.6 5.7 1.1
17 Larry Nance Jr. ATL 8.4 3.6 1.6
18 Talen Horton-Tucker CHI 7.3 2.8 1.7
19 Keaton Wallace ATL 6.2 2.1 1.5
20 Julian Phillips CHI 5.0 1.9 0.8
21 Dalen Terry CHI 4.6 2.3 1.4
22 Matas Buzelis CHI 4.5 2.4 0.7
23 Chris Duarte CHI 4.4 2.0 0.9
24 Jevon Carter CHI 4.0 1.4 0.8
25 Mouhamed Gueye ATL 3.2 2.3 0.7

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.