NBA games

UTAH @ SA

NBA Frost Bank Center ·Final
111–110
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
UTAH25282929111
SA22233728110

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (SA) / 10 (UTAH) games this season
UTAH away
home SA
27% 73%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Collin Sexton S 29 23 4 2
Lauri Markkanen S 36 20 6 4
Jordan Clarkson 24 16 3 4
John Collins 29 15 10 2
Johnny Juzang 22 10 4 0
Kyle Filipowski 25 8 5 6
Walker Kessler S 19 7 5 0
Isaiah Collier S 25 7 6 4
Patty Mills 14 5 1 0
Cody Williams S 17 0 1 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Victor Wembanyama S 33 24 16 0
Stephon Castle S 35 23 2 3
Devin Vassell 22 21 1 2
Keldon Johnson 30 14 4 5
Harrison Barnes S 27 10 2 2
Zach Collins 15 5 3 4
Julian Champagnie S 25 5 6 2
Blake Wesley 19 5 0 2
Chris Paul S 27 3 2 9
Sandro Mamukelashvili 7 0 1 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Walker Kessler · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:07 Q1
"Walker Kessler makes 3-foot two point shot (Collin Sexton assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Victor Wembanyama SA
14%
2 Lauri Markkanen UTAH
14%
3 Walker Kessler UTAH
12%
4 Collin Sexton UTAH
11%
5 Stephon Castle SA
11%
6 Julian Champagnie SA
11%
7 Harrison Barnes SA
10%
8 Chris Paul SA
9%
9 Cody Williams UTAH
8%
10 Jordan Clarkson UTAH
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
26%
Dunk
5%
Free Throw
13%
Jumper
34%
Layup
22%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Victor Wembanyama SA 18.9 10.2 3.4
2 Lauri Markkanen UTAH 15.6 5.6 1.9
3 Collin Sexton UTAH 15.1 2.9 3.6
4 John Collins UTAH 14.5 6.9 2.1
5 Keldon Johnson SA 13.9 5.9 1.7
6 Chris Paul SA 13.8 3.7 7.7
7 Jordan Clarkson UTAH 13.1 3.8 2.9
8 Julian Champagnie SA 11.7 4.9 1.9
9 Harrison Barnes SA 11.3 3.9 1.7
10 Walker Kessler UTAH 9.7 10.2 1.2
11 Stephon Castle SA 8.8 3.1 2.6
12 Johnny Juzang UTAH 7.3 1.8 1.0
13 Svi Mykhailiuk UTAH 7.2 1.7 1.2
14 Zach Collins SA 6.7 3.4 2.3
15 Cody Williams UTAH 6.2 3.0 1.5
16 Brice Sensabaugh UTAH 5.9 2.0 0.9
17 Sandro Mamukelashvili SA 5.7 2.7 1.2
18 Kyle Filipowski UTAH 5.4 3.4 1.3
19 Blake Wesley SA 5.4 1.6 2.5
20 Drew Eubanks UTAH 5.2 4.2 0.9
21 Isaiah Collier UTAH 4.8 1.4 3.3
22 Sidy Cissoko SA 4.8 2.3 1.2
23 Charles Bassey SA 4.6 3.4 0.7
24 Patty Mills UTAH 4.4 1.5 1.2

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.