NBA games

LAC @ SAC

NBA Golden 1 Center ·Final
107–98
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
LAC34172729107
SAC2817282598

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (SAC) / 10 (LAC) games this season
LAC away
home SAC
41% 59%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Norman Powell S 39 31 12 2
James Harden S 35 22 4 8
Amir Coffey 29 14 1 1
Derrick Jones Jr. S 31 14 4 0
Ivica Zubac S 37 13 15 5
Kevin Porter Jr. 19 11 0 0
Terance Mann S 22 2 5 3
Nicolas Batum 11 0 4 0
Kris Dunn 18 0 3 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
De'Aaron Fox S 38 31 3 0
Domantas Sabonis S 38 23 12 6
Malik Monk 31 17 1 3
DeMar DeRozan S 40 13 1 6
Keegan Murray S 39 7 10 2
Kevin Huerter S 20 4 2 1
Keon Ellis 19 3 1 1
Alex Len 9 0 3 0
Trey Lyles 7 0 2 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
De'Aaron Fox · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:41 Q1
"De'Aaron Fox makes 26-foot three point jumper (Domantas Sabonis assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 De'Aaron Fox SAC
14%
2 Ivica Zubac LAC
12%
3 James Harden LAC
12%
4 Keegan Murray SAC
10%
5 DeMar DeRozan SAC
10%
6 Domantas Sabonis SAC
9%
7 Kevin Huerter SAC
9%
8 Norman Powell LAC
8%
9 Derrick Jones Jr. LAC
8%
10 Terance Mann LAC
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
24%
Dunk
6%
Free Throw
18%
Jumper
34%
Layup
18%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 DeMar DeRozan SAC 23.7 4.2 4.2
2 De'Aaron Fox SAC 23.7 5.0 5.3
3 Domantas Sabonis SAC 23.5 11.9 7.0
4 Norman Powell LAC 21.2 3.1 2.9
5 James Harden LAC 20.8 7.0 8.3
6 Ivica Zubac LAC 16.2 11.1 2.5
7 Keegan Murray SAC 15.2 7.2 1.9
8 Malik Monk SAC 12.2 3.4 2.6
9 Derrick Jones Jr. LAC 11.4 3.5 1.4
10 Kevin Huerter SAC 10.8 3.3 1.8
11 Amir Coffey LAC 9.1 2.6 1.1
12 Kevin Porter Jr. LAC 8.1 3.7 3.3
13 Jordan Miller LAC 7.4 2.2 1.2
14 Kris Dunn LAC 7.0 3.5 2.0
15 Keon Ellis SAC 7.0 2.6 1.5
16 Terance Mann LAC 6.5 2.9 1.4
17 Bones Hyland LAC 6.2 2.6 1.1
18 Kobe Brown LAC 5.2 3.7 1.5
19 Nicolas Batum LAC 4.7 2.9 1.9
20 Trey Lyles SAC 4.2 2.7 0.8
21 Doug McDermott SAC 4.1 1.1 0.5
22 Kai Jones LAC 3.8 2.8 0.5
23 Jordan McLaughlin SAC 3.5 1.5 1.5
24 Alex Len SAC 3.3 3.5 0.8
25 Isaac Jones SAC 2.9 1.6 0.7
26 Colby Jones SAC 2.3 1.0 0.9

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.