NBA games

PHI @ LAL

NBA crypto.com Arena ·Final
106–116
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
PHI29312125106
LAL36322820116

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (LAL) / 10 (PHI) games this season
PHI away
home LAL
46% 54%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jared McCain 31 18 1 2
Guerschon Yabusele 23 14 5 0
Andre Drummond S 22 14 12 0
Caleb Martin S 26 13 3 5
KJ Martin 17 11 2 0
Paul George S 25 9 4 8
Kelly Oubre Jr. S 30 9 6 2
Kyle Lowry S 32 5 3 6
Reggie Jackson 11 3 2 2
Lester Quinones 2 3 2 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Anthony Davis S 36 31 9 1
LeBron James S 34 21 12 13
Austin Reaves S 30 20 6 7
D'Angelo Russell 25 18 2 3
Rui Hachimura S 33 9 4 1
Jaxson Hayes 16 8 2 0
Cam Reddish S 28 3 5 2
Dalton Knecht 16 2 4 0
Gabe Vincent 16 2 0 0
Max Christie 1 2 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Rui Hachimura · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:41 Q1
"Rui Hachimura makes 23-foot three point jumper (LeBron James assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Anthony Davis LAL
17%
2 Paul George PHI
9%
3 Rui Hachimura LAL
9%
4 LeBron James LAL
9%
5 Kelly Oubre Jr. PHI
8%
6 Austin Reaves LAL
8%
7 Andre Drummond PHI
8%
8 Jaxson Hayes LAL
7%
9 D'Angelo Russell LAL
7%
10 Jalen Hood-Schifino LAL
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
2%
Dunk
4%
Free Throw
82%
Jumper
2%
Layup
11%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Anthony Davis LAL 29.1 10.9 3.5
2 LeBron James LAL 23.0 6.2 6.8
3 Austin Reaves LAL 19.2 4.9 4.9
4 Kelly Oubre Jr. PHI 17.8 4.0 1.9
5 Paul George PHI 17.6 5.1 3.0
6 Rui Hachimura LAL 13.6 6.5 1.6
7 D'Angelo Russell LAL 12.5 3.0 5.7
8 Caleb Martin PHI 11.3 5.3 2.5
9 Andre Drummond PHI 10.1 10.3 1.4
10 Dalton Knecht LAL 9.4 2.6 1.4
11 Guerschon Yabusele PHI 8.9 4.6 2.3
12 Jared McCain PHI 8.5 2.9 1.5
13 Kyle Lowry PHI 7.5 2.6 3.3
14 Eric Gordon PHI 6.9 1.7 1.4
15 KJ Martin PHI 6.3 3.3 1.1
16 Jaxson Hayes LAL 5.8 5.2 1.3
17 Ricky Council IV PHI 5.3 1.9 1.1
18 Max Christie LAL 5.1 2.4 1.2
19 Jalen Hood-Schifino LAL 5.1 2.1 3.5
20 Cam Reddish LAL 5.0 2.6 0.9
21 Gabe Vincent LAL 4.8 1.5 1.2
22 Reggie Jackson PHI 4.0 1.2 1.7
23 Jeff Dowtin Jr. PHI 4.0 1.2 1.7
24 Bronny James LAL 3.9 1.8 0.7
25 Lester Quinones PHI 3.7 1.4 0.5
26 Adem Bona PHI 2.8 1.8 0.6
27 Maxwell Lewis LAL 2.6 1.3 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.