NBA games

MIA @ DEN

NBA Ball Arena ·Final
122–135
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MIA27333032122
DEN40313331135

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (DEN) / 10 (MIA) games this season
MIA away
home DEN
37% 63%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Tyler Herro S 40 24 7 11
Duncan Robinson 20 20 3 3
Bam Adebayo S 39 20 9 4
Haywood Highsmith 35 15 0 2
Terry Rozier S 35 15 3 4
Nikola Jovic S 20 11 4 2
Josh Richardson 21 10 2 3
Pelle Larsson 14 5 2 2
Jimmy Butler III S 7 2 1 2
Thomas Bryant 7 0 2 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Nikola Jokic S 40 30 11 14
Jamal Murray S 35 28 4 6
Michael Porter Jr. S 36 21 5 4
Christian Braun S 35 21 6 2
Peyton Watson S 33 16 5 1
Hunter Tyson 9 7 2 0
Julian Strawther 24 6 1 0
Russell Westbrook 24 6 4 10
Zeke Nnaji 3 0 1 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Peyton Watson · Layup (2 pts) · 11:26 Q1
"Peyton Watson makes two point shot (Nikola Jokic assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Bam Adebayo MIA
13%
2 Jimmy Butler III MIA
12%
3 Christian Braun DEN
11%
4 Michael Porter Jr. DEN
10%
5 Jamal Murray DEN
9%
6 Nikola Jokic DEN
9%
7 Peyton Watson DEN
8%
8 Tyler Herro MIA
7%
9 Nikola Jovic MIA
7%
10 Russell Westbrook DEN
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
15%
Dunk
8%
Free Throw
10%
Jumper
36%
Layup
31%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Nikola Jokic DEN 26.7 12.7 10.0
2 Tyler Herro MIA 21.7 4.4 4.9
3 Jimmy Butler III MIA 18.0 5.0 4.8
4 Michael Porter Jr. DEN 17.7 6.7 2.6
5 Bam Adebayo MIA 14.7 8.0 3.2
6 Christian Braun DEN 14.7 5.5 1.8
7 Jamal Murray DEN 14.1 3.3 3.3
8 Terry Rozier MIA 13.9 4.4 4.5
9 Russell Westbrook DEN 13.1 3.8 5.1
10 Julian Strawther DEN 11.2 2.8 2.1
11 Jaime Jaquez Jr. MIA 9.3 5.9 2.5
12 Nikola Jovic MIA 7.3 3.1 1.8
13 Haywood Highsmith MIA 6.7 3.5 0.9
14 Pelle Larsson MIA 6.6 1.6 1.9
15 Duncan Robinson MIA 6.5 1.9 1.5
16 Peyton Watson DEN 6.4 3.2 1.1
17 Alec Burks MIA 6.1 2.1 1.7
18 Kel'el Ware MIA 5.5 3.7 0.6
19 Zeke Nnaji DEN 5.1 2.2 0.7
20 Thomas Bryant MIA 4.5 2.5 0.7
21 Hunter Tyson DEN 4.4 3.0 1.0
22 DeAndre Jordan DEN 4.2 5.5 1.0
23 Kevin Love MIA 3.3 0.6 0.4
24 Dario Saric DEN 3.2 2.4 0.8
25 Trey Alexander DEN 3.1 1.5 1.2
26 Spencer Jones DEN 1.6 0.8 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.