NBA games

POR @ MIN

NBA Target Center ·Final
102–127
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
POR17342427102
MIN35293429127

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (MIN) / 10 (POR) games this season
POR away
home MIN
45% 55%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Scoot Henderson 32 16 4 3
Anfernee Simons S 27 14 1 2
Robert Williams III 17 13 3 2
Jerami Grant S 27 12 1 0
Dalano Banton 12 12 2 2
Deni Avdija S 23 9 5 1
Donovan Clingan 19 6 3 0
Shaedon Sharpe 21 6 2 2
Kris Murray 7 4 2 1
Deandre Ayton S 18 4 6 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Anthony Edwards S 30 37 6 5
Julius Randle S 32 22 6 4
Naz Reid 22 15 4 1
Donte DiVincenzo 29 14 3 7
Nickeil Alexander-Walker 27 9 6 3
Rudy Gobert S 23 8 15 2
Rob Dillingham 6 7 3 2
Luka Garza 5 6 0 0
Jaden McDaniels S 27 5 3 2
Josh Minott 13 2 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Anthony Edwards · Free Throw (1 pts) · 11:19 Q1
"Anthony Edwards makes free throw 1 of 2"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Anthony Edwards MIN
38%
2 Deandre Ayton POR
10%
3 Rudy Gobert MIN
8%
4 Anfernee Simons POR
7%
5 Jerami Grant POR
7%
6 Julius Randle MIN
6%
7 Deni Avdija POR
6%
8 Jaden McDaniels MIN
6%
9 Toumani Camara POR
6%
10 Mike Conley MIN
5%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
10%
Dunk
0%
Free Throw
84%
Jumper
2%
Layup
4%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Anthony Edwards MIN 24.7 5.0 4.0
2 Julius Randle MIN 23.3 6.8 5.3
3 Anfernee Simons POR 19.9 2.9 5.5
4 Jerami Grant POR 18.0 4.5 2.9
5 Deandre Ayton POR 15.2 10.2 1.6
6 Naz Reid MIN 14.5 5.8 2.2
7 Scoot Henderson POR 12.9 3.2 4.6
8 Donte DiVincenzo MIN 12.9 3.4 4.2
9 Rudy Gobert MIN 12.4 10.7 2.0
10 Deni Avdija POR 11.0 5.9 3.6
11 Jaden McDaniels MIN 10.5 3.3 1.9
12 Toumani Camara POR 10.2 4.7 2.3
13 Luka Garza MIN 8.9 3.9 0.8
14 Josh Minott MIN 8.4 4.0 1.2
15 Nickeil Alexander-Walker MIN 8.4 2.7 2.5
16 Mike Conley MIN 8.3 2.9 4.5
17 Dalano Banton POR 7.6 2.0 2.1
18 Rayan Rupert POR 6.7 2.3 1.0
19 Rob Dillingham MIN 6.6 1.6 3.4
20 Kris Murray POR 5.3 2.5 0.9
21 Donovan Clingan POR 5.3 6.6 0.7
22 Jabari Walker POR 4.9 3.1 0.8
23 Terrence Shannon Jr. MIN 4.6 1.8 1.3
24 Duop Reath POR 4.0 1.8 0.7
25 PJ Dozier MIN 3.5 1.2 0.8
26 Joe Ingles MIN 1.9 1.0 1.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.