NBA games

HOU @ OKC

NBA Paycom Center ·Final
107–126
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
HOU31202531107
OKC31442328126

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (OKC) / 10 (HOU) games this season
HOU away
home OKC
33% 67%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Dillon Brooks S 27 17 4 1
Jalen Green S 28 14 4 2
Amen Thompson 24 14 7 1
Tari Eason 25 12 6 0
Fred VanVleet S 30 11 3 2
Alperen Sengun S 27 11 9 6
Jae'Sean Tate 6 6 5 0
Steven Adams 16 5 2 1
Jabari Smith Jr. S 17 4 1 0
Reed Sheppard 19 4 2 4
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander S 29 29 5 4
Chet Holmgren S 29 29 5 1
Jalen Williams S 32 14 5 3
Isaiah Joe 24 14 6 1
Ajay Mitchell 20 12 2 7
Alex Caruso 14 10 4 1
Aaron Wiggins 30 8 5 5
Cason Wallace S 23 4 5 1
Luguentz Dort S 19 3 0 1
Dillon Jones 12 2 2 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jalen Green · Layup (2 pts) · 11:46 Q1
"Jalen Green makes 2-foot two point shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Alperen Sengun HOU
14%
2 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC
12%
3 Chet Holmgren OKC
12%
4 Jalen Williams OKC
11%
5 Jalen Green HOU
11%
6 Fred VanVleet HOU
9%
7 Jabari Smith Jr. HOU
9%
8 Dillon Brooks HOU
8%
9 Luguentz Dort OKC
7%
10 Isaiah Joe OKC
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
12%
Dunk
8%
Free Throw
17%
Jumper
33%
Layup
31%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC 24.3 5.8 6.2
2 Jalen Green HOU 22.0 4.9 3.4
3 Jalen Williams OKC 19.1 5.6 4.9
4 Alperen Sengun HOU 17.7 11.6 3.7
5 Chet Holmgren OKC 17.2 9.0 2.2
6 Fred VanVleet HOU 13.4 3.8 6.0
7 Jabari Smith Jr. HOU 12.2 7.4 1.6
8 Dillon Brooks HOU 11.1 4.1 1.3
9 Amen Thompson HOU 10.9 6.0 2.1
10 Luguentz Dort OKC 9.9 3.9 1.6
11 Tari Eason HOU 9.1 4.7 1.5
12 Aaron Wiggins OKC 9.0 4.1 1.8
13 Isaiah Joe OKC 8.2 2.9 1.4
14 Cason Wallace OKC 7.6 3.8 1.8
15 Ousmane Dieng OKC 6.2 3.6 1.3
16 Ajay Mitchell OKC 5.6 1.8 1.3
17 Jock Landale HOU 5.2 3.1 0.7
18 Alex Caruso OKC 5.1 3.0 1.9
19 Jack McVeigh HOU 4.9 2.0 0.6
20 Reed Sheppard HOU 4.5 1.9 1.3
21 Aaron Holiday HOU 4.1 1.4 0.9
22 Steven Adams HOU 3.9 4.4 1.4
23 Dillon Jones OKC 3.8 2.9 1.6
24 Jeff Green HOU 3.7 2.1 0.8
25 Jae'Sean Tate HOU 3.3 2.4 0.9
26 Malevy Leons OKC 2.8 2.1 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.