NBA games

WSH @ MEM

NBA FedExForum ·Final
104–128
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
WSH24252233104
MEM34323230128

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (MEM) / 10 (WSH) games this season
WSH away
home MEM
39% 61%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Kyshawn George 34 17 6 3
Jonas Valanciunas S 23 16 5 0
Corey Kispert 29 14 2 1
Bub Carrington S 33 10 10 8
Jordan Poole S 23 10 2 1
Bilal Coulibaly S 31 10 3 3
Alex Sarr S 25 8 5 5
Richaun Holmes 5 6 2 0
Anthony Gill 5 5 1 0
Jared Butler 14 5 3 6
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jaren Jackson Jr. S 28 39 6 1
Zach Edey 22 14 8 2
Santi Aldama S 32 12 5 4
Jay Huff 14 12 4 0
Scotty Pippen Jr. S 28 11 10 11
Jaylen Wells S 25 11 0 1
Luke Kennard 19 11 3 3
Jake LaRavia 27 9 5 5
Brandon Clarke S 18 6 4 0
Yuki Kawamura 5 3 2 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Brandon Clarke · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:44 Q1
"Brandon Clarke makes 10-foot two point shot (Scotty Pippen Jr. assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jaren Jackson Jr. MEM
15%
2 Zach Edey MEM
12%
3 Jordan Poole WSH
12%
4 Bilal Coulibaly WSH
12%
5 Alex Sarr WSH
11%
6 Jaylen Wells MEM
10%
7 Santi Aldama MEM
10%
8 Bub Carrington WSH
9%
9 Kyshawn George WSH
8%
10 Corey Kispert WSH
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
21%
Dunk
7%
Free Throw
19%
Jumper
20%
Layup
33%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jaren Jackson Jr. MEM 20.7 5.7 1.8
2 Jordan Poole WSH 19.2 2.5 4.5
3 Bilal Coulibaly WSH 16.1 5.8 2.2
4 Santi Aldama MEM 14.5 7.7 3.5
5 Scotty Pippen Jr. MEM 12.8 3.8 5.7
6 Corey Kispert WSH 11.4 2.8 1.5
7 Jaylen Wells MEM 11.4 3.7 1.9
8 Alex Sarr WSH 10.7 6.2 1.7
9 Bub Carrington WSH 10.6 4.2 3.3
10 Zach Edey MEM 10.1 6.9 1.1
11 Jonas Valanciunas WSH 9.8 6.6 2.4
12 Jake LaRavia MEM 9.2 5.6 3.4
13 Kyshawn George WSH 9.0 3.8 2.4
14 Jay Huff MEM 8.4 3.2 1.2
15 Brandon Clarke MEM 5.6 2.8 0.9
16 Luke Kennard MEM 5.6 1.8 1.6
17 John Konchar MEM 5.2 4.1 1.2
18 Jared Butler WSH 5.0 1.1 2.8
19 Patrick Baldwin Jr. WSH 4.0 1.4 0.4
20 Marvin Bagley III WSH 3.9 3.1 0.6
21 Johnny Davis WSH 3.3 1.4 0.7
22 Yuki Kawamura MEM 3.0 1.1 1.9
23 Colin Castleton MEM 2.8 2.5 1.2
24 Richaun Holmes WSH 2.7 2.3 0.3
25 Anthony Gill WSH 2.2 0.6 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.