NBA games

PHX @ DAL

NBA American Airlines Center ·Final
114–113
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
PHX36272427114
DAL26243330113

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (DAL) / 10 (PHX) games this season
PHX away
home DAL
45% 55%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Kevin Durant S 37 26 5 4
Royce O'Neale 29 18 5 2
Tyus Jones S 31 17 2 5
Bradley Beal S 36 15 4 3
Jusuf Nurkic S 34 15 10 0
Devin Booker S 35 13 6 12
Josh Okogie 5 6 0 0
Mason Plumlee 14 4 2 0
Grayson Allen 19 0 3 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Luka Doncic S 42 30 7 7
Kyrie Irving S 41 29 7 6
Naji Marshall S 29 18 5 0
Daniel Gafford S 23 15 7 0
Klay Thompson S 34 12 4 2
Dwight Powell 25 4 6 1
Spencer Dinwiddie 28 3 0 2
Quentin Grimes 9 2 2 0
Olivier-Maxence Prosper 3 0 1 0
Jaden Hardy 3 0 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Daniel Gafford · Layup (2 pts) · 11:41 Q1
"Daniel Gafford makes two point shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Devin Booker PHX
13%
2 Bradley Beal PHX
12%
3 Daniel Gafford DAL
12%
4 Kyrie Irving DAL
11%
5 Kevin Durant PHX
11%
6 Naji Marshall DAL
9%
7 Tyus Jones PHX
9%
8 Jusuf Nurkic PHX
8%
9 Luka Doncic DAL
8%
10 Klay Thompson DAL
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
17%
Dunk
5%
Free Throw
16%
Jumper
45%
Layup
18%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Luka Doncic DAL 28.4 8.0 8.5
2 Kevin Durant PHX 25.2 6.5 3.9
3 Devin Booker PHX 23.2 4.0 5.6
4 Kyrie Irving DAL 21.6 4.5 4.4
5 Bradley Beal PHX 14.9 4.0 3.5
6 Klay Thompson DAL 12.0 3.9 2.0
7 Jusuf Nurkic PHX 11.8 10.5 1.6
8 Tyus Jones PHX 10.8 3.1 5.8
9 Royce O'Neale PHX 9.9 6.2 2.4
10 Daniel Gafford DAL 9.0 6.5 1.3
11 Grayson Allen PHX 7.7 2.6 1.2
12 Naji Marshall DAL 7.0 3.2 2.9
13 Jazian Gortman DAL 6.9 1.4 1.5
14 Jaden Hardy DAL 6.6 1.5 1.6
15 Spencer Dinwiddie DAL 5.9 1.8 1.7
16 Olivier-Maxence Prosper DAL 5.5 2.3 0.7
17 Quentin Grimes DAL 5.3 3.1 1.1
18 Mason Plumlee PHX 4.7 5.2 1.1
19 Monte Morris PHX 4.5 1.4 1.9
20 Brandon Williams DAL 4.5 1.4 1.0
21 Josh Okogie PHX 4.2 1.7 1.0
22 Bol Bol PHX 3.7 3.4 0.8
23 Oso Ighodaro PHX 3.4 2.8 0.8
24 Damion Lee PHX 2.6 0.8 0.6
25 Dwight Powell DAL 2.6 2.1 0.8

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.