NBA games

MIL @ NY

NBA Madison Square Garden ·Final
94–116
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MIL2522252294
NY32342525116

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (NY) / 10 (MIL) games this season
MIL away
home NY
24% 76%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Giannis Antetokounmpo S 32 24 12 2
Damian Lillard S 34 19 6 6
Tyler Smith 8 10 2 0
AJ Green 25 9 0 0
Brook Lopez S 24 7 3 1
Ryan Rollins 12 7 1 3
MarJon Beauchamp 8 4 2 1
Bobby Portis 17 4 5 1
Taurean Prince S 28 3 5 2
Andre Jackson Jr. S 18 3 0 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Karl-Anthony Towns S 32 32 11 5
Mikal Bridges S 37 17 3 3
Jalen Brunson S 32 15 2 9
OG Anunoby S 32 14 6 5
Miles McBride 28 14 5 2
Josh Hart S 33 11 9 7
Tyler Kolek 16 8 4 2
Matt Ryan 6 3 0 0
Jericho Sims 16 2 5 1
Pacome Dadiet 5 0 1 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Karl-Anthony Towns · 3PT (3 pts) · 10:49 Q1
"Karl-Anthony Towns makes 26-foot three point jumper (Mikal Bridges assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Giannis Antetokounmpo MIL
14%
2 Jalen Brunson NY
12%
3 Karl-Anthony Towns NY
11%
4 OG Anunoby NY
11%
5 Mikal Bridges NY
11%
6 Josh Hart NY
9%
7 Damian Lillard MIL
8%
8 Andre Jackson Jr. MIL
8%
9 Brook Lopez MIL
8%
10 Taurean Prince MIL
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
1%
Dunk
9%
Free Throw
36%
Jumper
16%
Layup
39%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Giannis Antetokounmpo MIL 28.2 11.8 5.7
2 Jalen Brunson NY 25.4 3.3 5.7
3 Damian Lillard MIL 25.1 4.6 6.6
4 Karl-Anthony Towns NY 22.4 11.4 3.0
5 Mikal Bridges NY 16.0 3.9 3.2
6 Bobby Portis MIL 14.0 7.8 1.5
7 OG Anunoby NY 14.0 4.4 2.4
8 Miles McBride NY 13.4 2.5 3.3
9 Josh Hart NY 11.5 7.6 4.5
10 Brook Lopez MIL 9.9 4.8 1.5
11 Taurean Prince MIL 7.7 3.9 1.5
12 Tyler Kolek NY 6.6 1.7 1.8
13 AJ Green MIL 5.5 1.5 1.1
14 Pat Connaughton MIL 5.4 2.6 1.6
15 Pacome Dadiet NY 4.4 1.6 0.4
16 Andre Jackson Jr. MIL 4.1 2.6 1.2
17 Stanley Umude MIL 3.9 1.4 0.6
18 Liam Robbins MIL 3.6 2.3 0.9
19 Ryan Rollins MIL 3.6 1.6 0.8
20 Tyler Smith MIL 3.5 2.5 0.6
21 MarJon Beauchamp MIL 3.4 1.7 0.7
22 Jericho Sims NY 3.3 4.4 0.6
23 Delon Wright MIL 3.0 1.1 0.8
24 Ariel Hukporti NY 1.9 2.4 0.2
25 Jacob Toppin NY 1.3 0.8 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.