NBA games

BKN @ BOS

NBA TD Garden ·Final
104–108
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4Q5T
BKN2823271610104
BOS2425271814108

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (BOS) / 10 (BKN) games this season
BKN away
home BOS
23% 77%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Cam Thomas S 38 31 3 1
Dennis Schroder S 37 20 3 3
Cameron Johnson S 40 18 8 4
Ziaire Williams 23 9 12 1
Ben Simmons 27 8 6 8
Jalen Wilson 25 8 2 1
Dorian Finney-Smith S 31 5 5 2
Keon Johnson 16 3 2 1
Nic Claxton S 28 2 10 3
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jayson Tatum S 42 33 9 6
Payton Pritchard 34 20 1 0
Jrue Holiday S 37 17 2 5
Derrick White S 43 14 3 6
Al Horford S 31 13 10 0
Sam Hauser 35 8 4 3
Neemias Queta 27 3 10 2
Jordan Walsh 11 0 0 1
Xavier Tillman S 6 0 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Dennis Schroder · Layup (2 pts) · 11:39 Q1
"Dennis Schroder makes driving layup (Cam Thomas assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jayson Tatum BOS
13%
2 Cam Thomas BKN
11%
3 Jaylen Brown BOS
11%
4 Nic Claxton BKN
8%
5 Dorian Finney-Smith BKN
8%
6 Jrue Holiday BOS
8%
7 Neemias Queta BOS
8%
8 Dennis Schroder BKN
7%
9 Derrick White BOS
7%
10 Cameron Johnson BKN
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
16%
Dunk
1%
Free Throw
55%
Jumper
14%
Layup
15%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jayson Tatum BOS 28.5 6.9 5.5
2 Jaylen Brown BOS 23.3 5.4 3.7
3 Cam Thomas BKN 22.6 3.5 3.5
4 Derrick White BOS 20.5 4.6 4.0
5 Dennis Schroder BKN 19.7 3.2 6.4
6 Cameron Johnson BKN 17.5 4.3 3.3
7 Payton Pritchard BOS 14.9 3.2 2.8
8 Jrue Holiday BOS 12.7 3.9 3.5
9 Dorian Finney-Smith BKN 10.3 4.7 1.7
10 Jalen Wilson BKN 9.2 3.4 2.2
11 Nic Claxton BKN 8.7 7.6 1.8
12 Ziaire Williams BKN 8.6 3.9 1.5
13 Sam Hauser BOS 8.3 4.5 1.4
14 Al Horford BOS 8.2 4.3 2.1
15 Ben Simmons BKN 6.5 5.4 4.6
16 Noah Clowney BKN 6.4 3.4 1.0
17 Neemias Queta BOS 6.2 5.8 1.0
18 Luke Kornet BOS 5.8 4.5 1.3
19 Drew Peterson BOS 5.0 1.3 0.5
20 Keon Johnson BKN 4.8 2.9 1.0
21 Jordan Walsh BOS 4.4 2.3 0.7
22 Xavier Tillman BOS 4.1 3.2 1.0
23 Shake Milton BKN 3.9 1.2 1.1
24 Tyrese Martin BKN 2.7 1.4 0.4
25 Jaden Springer BOS 2.7 1.0 0.8
26 Yongxi Cui BKN 1.4 0.6 0.2

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.