NBA games

NO @ ORL

NBA Kia Center ·Final
88–115
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
NO2324251688
ORL37202830115

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (ORL) / 10 (NO) games this season
NO away
home ORL
24% 76%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Brandon Boston S 38 26 6 3
Jose Alvarado S 35 21 5 5
Jeremiah Robinson-Earl S 32 12 4 0
Brandon Ingram S 26 11 5 5
Jaylen Nowell 13 10 0 1
Javonte Green 24 3 1 1
Antonio Reeves 18 3 3 1
Daniel Theis 12 2 1 2
Trey Jemison III 13 0 3 0
Jamal Cain 9 0 2 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Franz Wagner S 32 27 5 6
Moritz Wagner 18 17 4 2
Goga Bitadze S 27 11 9 3
Anthony Black 24 11 3 4
Jonathan Isaac 9 10 2 0
Cole Anthony 12 8 6 2
Jalen Suggs S 33 7 6 3
Tristan da Silva S 27 7 3 1
Gary Harris 19 7 1 2
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope S 29 7 3 5

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Franz Wagner · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:30 Q1
"Franz Wagner makes 6-foot driving floating jump shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Brandon Ingram NO
14%
2 Franz Wagner ORL
13%
3 Zion Williamson NO
12%
4 Jalen Suggs ORL
11%
5 Jose Alvarado NO
9%
6 Yves Missi NO
9%
7 Goga Bitadze ORL
8%
8 Brandon Boston NO
8%
9 Tristan da Silva ORL
8%
10 Kentavious Caldwell-Pope ORL
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
18%
Dunk
5%
Free Throw
13%
Jumper
45%
Layup
20%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Brandon Ingram NO 23.9 5.9 4.8
2 Zion Williamson NO 23.1 8.1 4.8
3 Franz Wagner ORL 20.5 5.0 4.4
4 Jalen Suggs ORL 20.2 5.2 5.4
5 Jose Alvarado NO 10.2 2.6 4.4
6 Moritz Wagner ORL 9.6 4.3 1.3
7 Anthony Black ORL 9.3 3.4 4.9
8 Kentavious Caldwell-Pope ORL 7.7 2.7 1.7
9 Brandon Boston NO 6.9 2.2 1.6
10 Tristan da Silva ORL 6.9 2.7 1.5
11 Yves Missi NO 6.4 5.9 1.4
12 Javonte Green NO 6.0 3.5 0.8
13 Goga Bitadze ORL 6.0 6.4 1.0
14 Gary Harris ORL 5.5 2.0 0.9
15 Jonathan Isaac ORL 5.2 3.3 0.7
16 Jeremiah Robinson-Earl NO 5.1 3.1 0.9
17 Cole Anthony ORL 4.7 1.9 2.4
18 Jamal Cain NO 4.6 2.5 0.6
19 Jett Howard ORL 4.6 1.6 0.8
20 Daniel Theis NO 4.5 3.5 1.1
21 Jaylen Nowell NO 3.7 1.1 0.5
22 Cory Joseph ORL 3.2 1.1 1.0
23 Caleb Houstan ORL 2.5 0.9 0.6
24 Trey Jemison III NO 2.3 2.2 0.5
25 Antonio Reeves NO 2.1 1.0 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.