NBA games

ATL @ DET

NBA Little Caesars Arena ·Final
121–122
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
ATL23303236121
DET40262927122

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (DET) / 10 (ATL) games this season
ATL away
home DET
38% 62%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Trae Young S 41 35 2 13
Jalen Johnson S 37 20 9 1
Dyson Daniels S 38 18 3 2
Larry Nance Jr. 13 13 1 2
Garrison Mathews 27 8 2 1
Onyeka Okongwu 17 8 5 3
Zaccharie Risacher S 25 7 5 3
Clint Capela S 19 7 12 2
David Roddy 16 3 5 3
Keaton Wallace 7 2 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Tobias Harris S 31 22 6 2
Cade Cunningham S 36 22 11 13
Malik Beasley 34 22 2 1
Jaden Ivey S 30 18 3 3
Simone Fontecchio 20 11 5 1
Isaiah Stewart S 33 10 11 3
Tim Hardaway Jr. S 29 7 5 4
Paul Reed 15 5 1 0
Ronald Holland II 14 5 1 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Isaiah Stewart · Layup (2 pts) · 11:29 Q1
"Isaiah Stewart makes driving layup (Cade Cunningham assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Cade Cunningham DET
16%
2 Trae Young ATL
11%
3 Jalen Johnson ATL
11%
4 Jaden Ivey DET
11%
5 Clint Capela ATL
9%
6 Tobias Harris DET
9%
7 Kobe Bufkin ATL
9%
8 Dyson Daniels ATL
8%
9 Zaccharie Risacher ATL
8%
10 Tim Hardaway Jr. DET
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
22%
Dunk
8%
Free Throw
16%
Jumper
24%
Layup
31%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Cade Cunningham DET 24.4 7.0 8.3
2 Trae Young ATL 24.0 4.3 10.3
3 Jalen Johnson ATL 20.9 9.7 5.4
4 Jaden Ivey DET 20.8 4.4 4.2
5 Kobe Bufkin ATL 15.5 3.2 3.9
6 Tobias Harris DET 14.3 7.4 2.6
7 Tim Hardaway Jr. DET 12.1 1.8 2.0
8 Zaccharie Risacher ATL 11.9 4.0 1.6
9 Dyson Daniels ATL 11.4 4.5 2.4
10 Onyeka Okongwu ATL 10.9 5.7 1.7
11 Malik Beasley DET 10.5 2.5 1.8
12 Garrison Mathews ATL 9.7 1.9 1.7
13 David Roddy ATL 9.6 5.1 1.8
14 Clint Capela ATL 8.4 5.8 1.2
15 Simone Fontecchio DET 7.2 3.2 1.1
16 Ronald Holland II DET 6.4 3.1 1.0
17 Larry Nance Jr. ATL 6.2 3.2 1.1
18 Isaiah Stewart DET 5.9 6.4 2.2
19 Cole Swider DET 5.9 3.5 1.0
20 Keaton Wallace ATL 5.5 1.8 1.4
21 Paul Reed DET 4.5 3.2 1.4
22 Wendell Moore Jr. DET 3.6 1.8 0.5
23 Mouhamed Gueye ATL 3.1 2.3 0.7
24 Marcus Sasser DET 3.0 0.9 1.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.