NBA games

IND @ CHA

NBA Spectrum Center ·Final
83–103
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
IND2618221783
CHA29153029103

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (CHA) / 10 (IND) games this season
IND away
home CHA
42% 58%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Pascal Siakam S 34 27 4 3
Bennedict Mathurin S 36 22 6 2
Myles Turner S 32 12 10 1
Quenton Jackson 20 7 2 2
Tyrese Haliburton S 34 6 7 9
Jarace Walker 18 5 2 3
Obi Toppin 21 2 2 1
Ben Sheppard S 31 2 3 3
James Johnson 2 0 0 0
Johnny Furphy 4 0 1 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
LaMelo Ball S 33 31 7 6
Brandon Miller S 33 29 6 6
Cody Martin 27 15 5 4
Tre Mann 27 14 2 4
Grant Williams 31 8 9 1
Josh Green S 19 2 1 0
Taj Gibson S 13 2 3 1
Tidjane Salaun S 21 2 7 1
Moussa Diabate 29 0 15 0
Seth Curry 4 0 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Bennedict Mathurin · Layup (2 pts) · 11:09 Q1
"Bennedict Mathurin makes two point shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 LaMelo Ball CHA
18%
2 Pascal Siakam IND
13%
3 Myles Turner IND
13%
4 Tyrese Haliburton IND
12%
5 Bennedict Mathurin IND
10%
6 Taj Gibson CHA
9%
7 Andrew Nembhard IND
9%
8 Josh Green CHA
8%
9 Brandon Miller CHA
8%
10 Ben Sheppard IND
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
22%
Dunk
2%
Free Throw
8%
Jumper
37%
Layup
30%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 LaMelo Ball CHA 24.6 4.7 6.5
2 Pascal Siakam IND 19.4 6.0 4.9
3 Tre Mann CHA 17.3 4.0 3.8
4 Myles Turner IND 17.2 6.6 2.1
5 Bennedict Mathurin IND 16.4 4.9 2.3
6 Tyrese Haliburton IND 16.3 4.2 6.5
7 Brandon Miller CHA 14.7 3.9 2.7
8 Grant Williams CHA 9.0 3.8 2.3
9 Obi Toppin IND 8.8 3.2 1.7
10 Cody Martin CHA 8.8 4.0 1.4
11 Andrew Nembhard IND 8.2 2.4 3.9
12 Ben Sheppard IND 7.6 2.2 1.4
13 Tidjane Salaun CHA 7.0 4.5 1.4
14 Seth Curry CHA 6.8 2.5 1.3
15 Nick Smith Jr. CHA 6.7 2.0 1.3
16 Jarace Walker IND 5.9 2.9 1.3
17 Josh Green CHA 5.9 1.9 1.0
18 Enrique Freeman IND 4.7 3.4 0.6
19 Moussa Diabate CHA 4.4 4.4 0.7
20 Quenton Jackson IND 3.9 1.5 1.2
21 Taj Gibson CHA 3.7 3.2 0.4
22 Vasilije Micic CHA 3.5 1.8 1.8
23 Jared Rhoden CHA 3.1 1.9 1.0

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.