NBA games

POR @ SA

NBA Frost Bank Center ·Final
105–118
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
POR27282426105
SA33233527118

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (SA) / 10 (POR) games this season
POR away
home SA
63% 37%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jerami Grant S 37 21 3 1
Deandre Ayton S 31 21 10 0
Anfernee Simons S 33 19 0 7
Shaedon Sharpe 20 13 2 1
Scoot Henderson 20 11 3 3
Deni Avdija S 25 9 7 5
Dalano Banton 16 4 3 3
Toumani Camara S 35 4 9 1
Jabari Walker 1 3 0 0
Rayan Rupert 8 0 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Keldon Johnson 31 17 11 3
Malaki Branham 22 17 1 3
Julian Champagnie S 33 14 6 2
Zach Collins 15 14 2 3
Stephon Castle S 25 14 3 6
Victor Wembanyama S 32 12 8 2
Harrison Barnes S 24 11 7 2
Blake Wesley 21 10 1 8
Chris Paul S 28 6 2 6
Sandro Mamukelashvili 8 3 3 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Stephon Castle · Layup (2 pts) · 11:35 Q1
"Stephon Castle makes layup (Chris Paul assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Deandre Ayton POR
13%
2 Victor Wembanyama SA
12%
3 Julian Champagnie SA
11%
4 Jerami Grant POR
10%
5 Anfernee Simons POR
10%
6 Stephon Castle SA
9%
7 Harrison Barnes SA
9%
8 Deni Avdija POR
9%
9 Toumani Camara POR
8%
10 Chris Paul SA
8%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
12%
Dunk
11%
Free Throw
6%
Jumper
30%
Layup
41%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Anfernee Simons POR 20.0 3.2 5.0
2 Victor Wembanyama SA 17.5 9.8 3.2
3 Jerami Grant POR 17.4 4.3 2.6
4 Deandre Ayton POR 14.1 10.1 1.5
5 Scoot Henderson POR 14.0 3.5 4.6
6 Keldon Johnson SA 12.8 5.6 1.5
7 Chris Paul SA 12.7 3.6 7.5
8 Deni Avdija POR 12.1 5.9 3.4
9 Toumani Camara POR 10.8 4.7 2.6
10 Julian Champagnie SA 10.6 4.7 1.6
11 Harrison Barnes SA 10.5 3.5 1.4
12 Malaki Branham SA 9.0 2.4 1.4
13 Dalano Banton POR 8.0 2.0 2.3
14 Stephon Castle SA 7.6 2.9 2.3
15 Rayan Rupert POR 6.6 2.5 1.1
16 Kris Murray POR 6.1 2.9 1.0
17 Zach Collins SA 6.0 3.3 2.0
18 Donovan Clingan POR 5.5 6.8 0.7
19 Sandro Mamukelashvili SA 5.4 2.6 1.0
20 Jabari Walker POR 4.7 3.2 0.8
21 Sidy Cissoko SA 4.4 2.3 1.1
22 Blake Wesley SA 4.2 1.7 1.8
23 Charles Bassey SA 4.1 3.2 0.6
24 Duop Reath POR 3.1 1.3 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.