NBA games

UTAH @ MIL

NBA Fiserv Forum ·Final
100123
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
UTAH29321623100
MIL31263135123

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (MIL) / 10 (UTAH) games this season
UTAH away
home MIL
36% 64%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jordan Clarkson 21 18 4 2
Collin Sexton S 27 14 2 7
Johnny Juzang 16 12 1 1
John Collins 25 11 3 1
Keyonte George S 25 10 3 3
Lauri Markkanen S 29 8 7 4
Brice Sensabaugh 3 6 1 0
Cody Williams S 25 6 2 1
Walker Kessler S 25 6 8 0
Patty Mills 16 5 1 2
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Damian Lillard S 37 34 4 7
Giannis Antetokounmpo S 30 31 16 2
Bobby Portis 27 19 6 0
AJ Green 18 12 0 2
Andre Jackson Jr. S 28 7 3 4
Taurean Prince S 25 6 4 1
Stanley Umude 3 3 0 0
Pat Connaughton 17 3 0 1
MarJon Beauchamp 3 2 2 0
Gary Trent Jr. 8 2 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Cody Williams · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:42 Q1
"Cody Williams makes 28-foot three point jumper (Collin Sexton assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Giannis Antetokounmpo MIL
11%
2 Bobby Portis MIL
9%
3 Lauri Markkanen UTAH
9%
4 Collin Sexton UTAH
8%
5 Walker Kessler UTAH
8%
6 Damian Lillard MIL
8%
7 Gary Trent Jr. MIL
6%
8 Jordan Clarkson UTAH
6%
9 Brook Lopez MIL
6%
10 Keyonte George UTAH
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
1%
Dunk
9%
Free Throw
40%
Jumper
14%
Layup
36%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Giannis Antetokounmpo MIL 30.1 12.8 6.7
2 Damian Lillard MIL 26.5 4.5 7.1
3 Keyonte George UTAH 17.7 3.3 5.5
4 Collin Sexton UTAH 17.0 3.4 3.9
5 Lauri Markkanen UTAH 16.9 5.2 1.7
6 John Collins UTAH 15.9 7.1 2.6
7 Bobby Portis MIL 14.5 7.5 1.9
8 Jordan Clarkson UTAH 11.9 3.7 2.6
9 Brook Lopez MIL 11.0 5.0 1.7
10 Walker Kessler UTAH 10.6 10.7 1.5
11 Gary Trent Jr. MIL 9.7 2.0 1.6
12 Taurean Prince MIL 8.3 3.8 1.8
13 Svi Mykhailiuk UTAH 7.8 1.7 1.3
14 Johnny Juzang UTAH 7.7 1.8 1.1
15 Brice Sensabaugh UTAH 6.9 2.4 1.3
16 Cody Williams UTAH 6.8 3.2 1.6
17 Kyle Filipowski UTAH 6.0 3.9 1.5
18 Pat Connaughton MIL 5.5 2.7 1.9
19 AJ Green MIL 5.4 1.6 1.1
20 Drew Eubanks UTAH 5.3 3.9 0.8
21 Isaiah Collier UTAH 4.8 1.1 3.5
22 Patty Mills UTAH 4.5 1.5 1.1
23 Andre Jackson Jr. MIL 4.0 2.9 1.3
24 Delon Wright MIL 4.0 1.5 1.2
25 Ryan Rollins MIL 3.8 1.5 0.9
26 Stanley Umude MIL 3.6 1.2 0.5
27 Liam Robbins MIL 3.3 2.2 0.8
28 Tyler Smith MIL 3.0 2.4 0.5
29 MarJon Beauchamp MIL 2.8 1.2 0.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.