NBA games

MIN @ CHI

NBA United Center ·Final
135–119
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MIN28283445135
CHI34313024119

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (CHI) / 10 (MIN) games this season
MIN away
home CHI
61% 39%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Anthony Edwards S 35 33 8 6
Julius Randle S 35 22 10 3
Rudy Gobert S 32 21 9 3
Jaden McDaniels S 33 19 2 0
Mike Conley S 26 14 2 11
Donte DiVincenzo 27 13 4 4
Nickeil Alexander-Walker 22 5 1 0
Terrence Shannon Jr. 2 4 0 0
Naz Reid 18 4 2 1
Josh Minott 5 0 1 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Nikola Vucevic S 30 25 5 2
Coby White S 34 24 0 8
Ayo Dosunmu S 33 13 3 2
Talen Horton-Tucker 18 13 5 2
Patrick Williams S 31 12 0 1
Josh Giddey S 30 9 6 13
Jalen Smith 16 9 6 0
Julian Phillips 11 6 1 0
Dalen Terry 16 6 3 1
Matas Buzelis 17 2 3 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jaden McDaniels · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:11 Q1
"Jaden McDaniels makes 22-foot three point jumper (Rudy Gobert assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Rudy Gobert MIN
12%
2 Nikola Vucevic CHI
12%
3 Coby White CHI
11%
4 Julius Randle MIN
11%
5 Josh Giddey CHI
10%
6 Ayo Dosunmu CHI
10%
7 Jaden McDaniels MIN
9%
8 Mike Conley MIN
9%
9 Patrick Williams CHI
8%
10 Anthony Edwards MIN
8%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
2%
Dunk
11%
Free Throw
11%
Jumper
24%
Layup
52%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Anthony Edwards MIN 24.8 5.1 3.8
2 Julius Randle MIN 24.6 6.7 5.4
3 Nikola Vucevic CHI 21.7 10.2 4.2
4 Coby White CHI 20.0 3.9 5.5
5 Naz Reid MIN 14.9 6.0 2.3
6 Josh Giddey CHI 14.9 5.8 6.2
7 Donte DiVincenzo MIN 12.5 3.7 4.2
8 Ayo Dosunmu CHI 11.5 4.6 3.6
9 Rudy Gobert MIN 11.3 10.3 1.8
10 Jaden McDaniels MIN 10.5 3.6 2.0
11 Luka Garza MIN 10.1 4.7 1.0
12 Patrick Williams CHI 10.0 5.3 2.0
13 Josh Minott MIN 9.4 4.4 1.3
14 Nickeil Alexander-Walker MIN 9.0 3.0 2.8
15 Jalen Smith CHI 8.7 5.9 1.1
16 Mike Conley MIN 7.7 2.9 3.4
17 Talen Horton-Tucker CHI 7.6 2.6 1.6
18 Rob Dillingham MIN 7.3 1.7 3.9
19 Julian Phillips CHI 5.3 1.8 0.8
20 Terrence Shannon Jr. MIN 5.0 1.9 1.5
21 Dalen Terry CHI 4.9 2.4 1.6
22 Matas Buzelis CHI 4.9 2.3 0.9
23 Chris Duarte CHI 4.5 1.9 0.9
24 Jevon Carter CHI 4.4 1.4 0.8
25 PJ Dozier MIN 3.9 1.3 0.9
26 Torrey Craig CHI 3.9 1.7 0.6
27 Joe Ingles MIN 2.5 1.1 1.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.