NBA games

TOR @ SAC

NBA Golden 1 Center ·Final
107–122
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
TOR33213914107
SAC30273233122

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (SAC) / 10 (TOR) games this season
TOR away
home SAC
24% 76%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
RJ Barrett S 33 23 3 3
Davion Mitchell S 32 20 3 6
Chris Boucher 25 17 4 0
Ochai Agbaji S 32 12 2 2
Jakob Poeltl S 35 10 8 4
Gradey Dick S 24 7 4 2
Jamison Battle 16 6 2 2
Jonathan Mogbo 18 5 5 3
Jamal Shead 16 5 1 2
Ja'Kobe Walter 8 2 1 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
DeMar DeRozan S 35 27 2 3
Keegan Murray S 35 22 12 3
De'Aaron Fox S 34 21 1 2
Domantas Sabonis S 34 17 11 13
Malik Monk 21 13 5 1
Kevin Huerter S 24 11 4 2
Keon Ellis 23 8 3 1
Alex Len 14 3 6 0
Isaac Jones 1 0 0 0
Trey Lyles 11 0 1 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Gradey Dick · Dunk (2 pts) · 11:42 Q1
"Gradey Dick makes 1-foot driving dunk (Davion Mitchell assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 DeMar DeRozan SAC
14%
2 Gradey Dick TOR
11%
3 Jakob Poeltl TOR
10%
4 De'Aaron Fox SAC
9%
5 RJ Barrett TOR
9%
6 Keegan Murray SAC
8%
7 Domantas Sabonis SAC
8%
8 Ochai Agbaji TOR
7%
9 Kevin Huerter SAC
7%
10 Doug McDermott SAC
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
8%
Dunk
12%
Free Throw
22%
Jumper
22%
Layup
36%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 RJ Barrett TOR 25.7 5.2 6.6
2 De'Aaron Fox SAC 24.7 5.5 5.8
3 Domantas Sabonis SAC 23.5 12.0 7.1
4 DeMar DeRozan SAC 23.1 4.4 4.3
5 Gradey Dick TOR 20.1 4.0 2.4
6 Jakob Poeltl TOR 16.8 11.5 3.2
7 Keegan Murray SAC 14.7 6.5 2.0
8 Ochai Agbaji TOR 13.6 5.0 2.2
9 Malik Monk SAC 12.3 3.3 2.6
10 Kevin Huerter SAC 11.3 3.2 1.7
11 Davion Mitchell TOR 10.0 2.7 5.8
12 Chris Boucher TOR 8.0 3.7 0.9
13 Keon Ellis SAC 7.5 2.6 1.7
14 Jamal Shead TOR 6.6 1.4 3.9
15 Jamison Battle TOR 5.7 2.4 1.0
16 Jonathan Mogbo TOR 5.4 4.0 1.6
17 Trey Lyles SAC 5.0 3.0 0.9
18 Bruno Fernando TOR 4.3 3.9 0.8
19 Jordan McLaughlin SAC 4.3 1.5 1.8
20 Ja'Kobe Walter TOR 4.1 3.1 0.9
21 Alex Len SAC 4.1 3.7 1.2
22 Doug McDermott SAC 3.7 0.9 0.4
23 Isaac Jones SAC 2.2 1.3 0.6
24 Colby Jones SAC 1.8 0.7 0.9

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.