NBA games

PHI @ LAC

NBA Intuit Dome ·Final
98110
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
PHI2724173098
LAC24273326110

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (LAC) / 10 (PHI) games this season
PHI away
home LAC
21% 79%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Paul George S 24 18 7 2
Kelly Oubre Jr. S 25 18 2 3
Caleb Martin S 31 14 2 2
Tyrese Maxey S 32 12 1 1
KJ Martin 18 10 4 0
Andre Drummond S 32 9 10 1
Ricky Council IV 10 7 1 0
Jared McCain 12 5 1 2
Guerschon Yabusele 10 4 1 0
Eric Gordon 17 1 1 2
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Norman Powell S 35 26 1 6
James Harden S 34 18 4 6
Ivica Zubac S 33 15 9 3
Derrick Jones Jr. S 24 14 4 2
Amir Coffey 25 11 3 0
Terance Mann S 21 7 2 2
Nicolas Batum 20 7 2 0
Kris Dunn 18 4 1 5
Kevin Porter Jr. 12 2 2 3
Kai Jones 9 2 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
James Harden · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:30 Q1
"James Harden makes 13-foot step back jumpshot (Ivica Zubac assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Tyrese Maxey PHI
14%
2 Ivica Zubac LAC
13%
3 Paul George PHI
11%
4 James Harden LAC
11%
5 Kelly Oubre Jr. PHI
10%
6 Andre Drummond PHI
10%
7 Derrick Jones Jr. LAC
8%
8 Norman Powell LAC
8%
9 Caleb Martin PHI
7%
10 Terance Mann LAC
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
20%
Dunk
4%
Free Throw
7%
Jumper
36%
Layup
33%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Tyrese Maxey PHI 22.7 3.0 4.4
2 James Harden LAC 20.9 7.2 9.4
3 Norman Powell LAC 20.0 3.3 2.6
4 Paul George PHI 16.3 4.6 2.6
5 Ivica Zubac LAC 15.6 11.5 2.7
6 Kelly Oubre Jr. PHI 15.4 4.0 1.6
7 Derrick Jones Jr. LAC 10.9 3.6 1.6
8 Caleb Martin PHI 10.0 5.2 2.1
9 Andre Drummond PHI 9.4 10.4 1.2
10 Amir Coffey LAC 9.1 2.8 1.3
11 Kevin Porter Jr. LAC 9.0 4.1 3.8
12 Guerschon Yabusele PHI 8.7 4.6 2.2
13 Jared McCain PHI 8.2 2.8 1.3
14 Jordan Miller LAC 8.0 2.5 1.3
15 Kris Dunn LAC 7.5 3.8 1.9
16 Kyle Lowry PHI 7.2 2.5 3.1
17 Bones Hyland LAC 7.0 2.7 1.3
18 Terance Mann LAC 6.8 3.4 1.6
19 Eric Gordon PHI 6.6 1.7 1.1
20 KJ Martin PHI 6.2 3.2 1.1
21 Kobe Brown LAC 5.4 4.2 1.6
22 Kai Jones LAC 4.9 3.8 0.8
23 Nicolas Batum LAC 4.9 3.2 2.0
24 Ricky Council IV PHI 4.4 1.9 0.8
25 Reggie Jackson PHI 3.0 0.7 1.3
26 Adem Bona PHI 1.9 1.4 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.