NBA games

MIA @ PHX

NBA Mortgage Matchup Center ·Final
112–115
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MIA25332925112
PHX26292931115

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (PHX) / 10 (MIA) games this season
MIA away
home PHX
39% 61%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Tyler Herro S 35 28 3 6
Haywood Highsmith 31 19 7 0
Jimmy Butler III S 37 15 7 3
Bam Adebayo S 34 12 12 6
Duncan Robinson 15 9 1 0
Terry Rozier S 32 7 7 5
Kel'el Ware 14 7 3 0
Pelle Larsson 21 6 0 3
Alec Burks 16 5 2 4
Nikola Jovic S 5 4 1 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Kevin Durant S 37 32 8 3
Devin Booker S 39 22 4 9
Jusuf Nurkic S 33 20 18 1
Grayson Allen 22 12 2 0
Ryan Dunn 9 7 1 1
Bradley Beal S 32 7 2 3
Royce O'Neale 23 6 7 2
Tyus Jones S 33 5 1 8
Mason Plumlee 12 4 3 2

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jusuf Nurkic · Free Throw (1 pts) · 11:39 Q1
"Jusuf Nurkic makes free throw 1 of 2"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jimmy Butler III MIA
13%
2 Bam Adebayo MIA
12%
3 Kevin Durant PHX
12%
4 Devin Booker PHX
11%
5 Bradley Beal PHX
11%
6 Jusuf Nurkic PHX
9%
7 Tyus Jones PHX
8%
8 Nikola Jovic MIA
8%
9 Terry Rozier MIA
8%
10 Tyler Herro MIA
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
10%
Dunk
14%
Free Throw
12%
Jumper
24%
Layup
40%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Kevin Durant PHX 24.7 6.2 4.0
2 Devin Booker PHX 22.2 3.9 5.0
3 Tyler Herro MIA 20.4 4.6 4.3
4 Bradley Beal PHX 17.2 4.1 3.6
5 Jimmy Butler III MIA 17.0 4.8 4.2
6 Bam Adebayo MIA 14.0 7.4 2.6
7 Terry Rozier MIA 12.9 4.4 3.8
8 Tyus Jones PHX 10.7 3.1 5.6
9 Jusuf Nurkic PHX 10.4 9.8 1.8
10 Royce O'Neale PHX 10.3 5.8 2.5
11 Jaime Jaquez Jr. MIA 9.0 5.9 2.5
12 Grayson Allen PHX 8.3 2.8 1.4
13 Nikola Jovic MIA 7.3 3.3 1.8
14 Ryan Dunn PHX 6.9 3.3 1.2
15 Pelle Larsson MIA 6.4 1.6 1.6
16 Duncan Robinson MIA 6.1 1.9 1.5
17 Alec Burks MIA 5.9 2.0 1.3
18 Haywood Highsmith MIA 5.7 3.0 0.8
19 Mason Plumlee PHX 5.4 5.3 1.3
20 Thomas Bryant MIA 5.3 2.9 0.8
21 Monte Morris PHX 4.8 1.5 2.1
22 Kel'el Ware MIA 4.3 3.4 0.3
23 Josh Okogie PHX 4.3 1.8 1.0
24 Oso Ighodaro PHX 3.9 2.9 1.0
25 Bol Bol PHX 3.8 3.4 0.8
26 Kevin Love MIA 3.1 0.6 0.4
27 Dru Smith MIA 2.9 1.7 1.3
28 Damion Lee PHX 2.7 0.8 0.7

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.