NBA games

OKC @ DEN

NBA Ball Arena ·Final
122–124
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
OKC32342927122
DEN30254029124

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (DEN) / 10 (OKC) games this season
OKC away
home DEN
25% 75%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jalen Williams S 36 29 10 9
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander S 39 28 2 6
Chet Holmgren S 36 15 10 0
Aaron Wiggins 17 13 2 1
Luguentz Dort S 26 11 6 3
Isaiah Joe S 25 11 5 3
Ousmane Dieng 10 6 4 0
Cason Wallace 20 4 2 2
Ajay Mitchell 9 3 0 1
Alex Caruso 22 2 6 4
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Russell Westbrook S 32 29 6 6
Michael Porter Jr. S 41 24 7 3
Christian Braun S 37 24 8 0
Nikola Jokic S 39 23 20 16
Peyton Watson S 33 10 3 3
Julian Strawther 27 9 5 6
Zeke Nnaji 11 3 2 0
Hunter Tyson 19 2 4 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Isaiah Joe · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:44 Q1
"Isaiah Joe makes 27-foot three point jumper (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Chet Holmgren OKC
14%
2 Nikola Jokic DEN
14%
3 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC
13%
4 Michael Porter Jr. DEN
12%
5 Jalen Williams OKC
12%
6 Christian Braun DEN
9%
7 Russell Westbrook DEN
9%
8 Luguentz Dort OKC
9%
9 Cason Wallace OKC
8%
10 Isaiah Joe OKC
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
19%
Dunk
7%
Free Throw
10%
Jumper
36%
Layup
28%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Nikola Jokic DEN 26.9 12.7 9.3
2 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC 24.0 5.7 6.5
3 Jalen Williams OKC 19.5 5.0 4.2
4 Michael Porter Jr. DEN 17.0 6.6 2.4
5 Chet Holmgren OKC 16.7 8.7 2.7
6 Christian Braun DEN 13.4 5.2 1.8
7 Julian Strawther DEN 12.4 3.0 2.2
8 Russell Westbrook DEN 11.1 3.5 5.0
9 Luguentz Dort OKC 9.7 3.5 1.6
10 Aaron Wiggins OKC 9.3 4.2 1.9
11 Isaiah Joe OKC 8.5 2.7 1.5
12 Cason Wallace OKC 8.1 3.8 1.9
13 Ousmane Dieng OKC 8.0 4.1 2.0
14 Ajay Mitchell OKC 6.0 2.0 1.6
15 Peyton Watson DEN 5.7 3.1 0.9
16 Zeke Nnaji DEN 5.3 2.4 0.7
17 Alex Caruso OKC 5.0 2.7 1.8
18 DeAndre Jordan DEN 4.8 5.9 1.0
19 Dillon Jones OKC 4.6 3.1 1.7
20 Hunter Tyson DEN 4.4 3.1 1.1
21 Malevy Leons OKC 3.6 2.5 0.7
22 Dario Saric DEN 3.5 2.5 0.8
23 Trey Alexander DEN 3.2 1.6 1.3
24 Jalen Pickett DEN 1.9 0.7 0.8
25 Spencer Jones DEN 1.6 0.8 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.