NBA games

CHI @ DAL

NBA American Airlines Center ·Final
99–119
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
CHI2421233199
DAL32243231119

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (DAL) / 10 (CHI) games this season
CHI away
home DAL
44% 56%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Nikola Vucevic S 25 14 10 3
Matas Buzelis 23 13 9 0
Dalen Terry 24 10 4 1
Josh Giddey S 28 10 3 6
Talen Horton-Tucker 16 8 2 4
Patrick Williams S 23 8 6 1
Julian Phillips 15 8 2 0
Coby White S 29 8 1 5
Chris Duarte 8 7 2 1
Ayo Dosunmu S 25 6 5 4
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Luka Doncic S 32 27 7 13
Kyrie Irving S 28 17 6 2
Daniel Gafford S 24 17 7 1
Klay Thompson S 25 13 6 1
Jaden Hardy 13 11 0 2
Naji Marshall S 21 8 2 2
Quentin Grimes 16 7 6 2
Olivier-Maxence Prosper 20 6 1 0
Dwight Powell 20 5 5 3
Spencer Dinwiddie 22 3 3 4

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Daniel Gafford · Free Throw (1 pts) · 11:26 Q1
"Daniel Gafford makes free throw 1 of 2"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Nikola Vucevic CHI
16%
2 Daniel Gafford DAL
13%
3 Kyrie Irving DAL
12%
4 Coby White CHI
12%
5 Josh Giddey CHI
11%
6 Patrick Williams CHI
10%
7 Ayo Dosunmu CHI
9%
8 Luka Doncic DAL
8%
9 Klay Thompson DAL
8%
10 Jalen Smith CHI
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
30%
Dunk
5%
Free Throw
11%
Jumper
33%
Layup
21%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Luka Doncic DAL 29.3 8.2 8.0
2 Kyrie Irving DAL 23.8 4.7 4.8
3 Coby White CHI 21.1 4.2 5.1
4 Nikola Vucevic CHI 20.8 9.8 3.8
5 Josh Giddey CHI 14.6 6.3 6.0
6 Klay Thompson DAL 12.4 3.6 2.3
7 Ayo Dosunmu CHI 11.3 4.3 3.2
8 Daniel Gafford DAL 9.5 6.8 1.4
9 Patrick Williams CHI 9.4 4.8 2.0
10 Jalen Smith CHI 8.6 5.9 1.1
11 Jaden Hardy DAL 7.9 1.8 2.2
12 Naji Marshall DAL 7.4 3.6 3.1
13 Talen Horton-Tucker CHI 7.3 2.8 1.5
14 Jazian Gortman DAL 7.0 1.4 1.4
15 Spencer Dinwiddie DAL 6.2 1.8 1.6
16 Julian Phillips CHI 5.6 2.1 0.8
17 Quentin Grimes DAL 5.6 3.0 1.1
18 Olivier-Maxence Prosper DAL 4.8 2.2 0.9
19 Brandon Williams DAL 4.5 1.1 1.2
20 Matas Buzelis CHI 4.3 2.0 0.9
21 Dalen Terry CHI 4.2 2.4 1.6
22 Dwight Powell DAL 3.4 2.3 0.8
23 Torrey Craig CHI 3.3 1.4 0.4
24 Chris Duarte CHI 2.6 1.0 0.5
25 Jevon Carter CHI 2.6 0.8 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.