NBA games

CLE @ NO

NBA Smoothie King Center ·Final
131–122
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
CLE29304032131
NO34252934122

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (NO) / 10 (CLE) games this season
CLE away
home NO
81% 19%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Donovan Mitchell S 34 29 4 3
Caris LeVert 28 16 6 6
Jarrett Allen S 35 16 14 2
Evan Mobley S 29 15 9 3
Darius Garland S 30 14 1 9
Ty Jerome 16 11 3 5
Sam Merrill 19 9 2 0
Georges Niang 21 9 2 2
Isaac Okoro S 24 7 4 3
Craig Porter Jr. 5 5 1 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Zion Williamson S 29 29 8 4
Jose Alvarado S 35 27 2 5
Brandon Ingram S 39 20 5 5
Brandon Boston S 38 14 2 5
Javonte Green 30 11 3 0
Yves Missi S 19 10 4 0
Jordan Hawkins 19 7 4 1
Jeremiah Robinson-Earl 26 4 5 1
Daniel Theis 6 0 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Darius Garland · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:43 Q1
"Darius Garland makes 26-foot three point jumper (Evan Mobley assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Zion Williamson NO
13%
2 Evan Mobley CLE
11%
3 Brandon Ingram NO
10%
4 Jarrett Allen CLE
10%
5 Donovan Mitchell CLE
9%
6 Jordan Hawkins NO
8%
7 Darius Garland CLE
7%
8 Yves Missi NO
7%
9 Jeremiah Robinson-Earl NO
6%
10 Brandon Boston NO
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
2%
Dunk
7%
Free Throw
8%
Jumper
54%
Layup
28%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Brandon Ingram NO 24.3 6.1 5.0
2 Donovan Mitchell CLE 23.9 3.7 4.8
3 Zion Williamson NO 22.2 7.8 5.0
4 Darius Garland CLE 21.7 2.9 6.4
5 Evan Mobley CLE 18.1 8.2 3.3
6 Jordan Hawkins NO 17.4 4.1 1.8
7 Jarrett Allen CLE 16.0 11.7 1.9
8 Caris LeVert CLE 10.9 2.5 4.3
9 Jose Alvarado NO 9.2 2.6 4.0
10 Ty Jerome CLE 8.0 2.2 2.2
11 Sam Merrill CLE 7.0 1.9 1.5
12 Brandon Boston NO 6.5 1.9 1.5
13 Yves Missi NO 6.2 5.6 1.5
14 Isaac Okoro CLE 6.1 2.7 1.5
15 Georges Niang CLE 6.1 2.9 1.4
16 Javonte Green NO 5.8 3.8 0.9
17 Jamal Cain NO 5.5 2.7 0.7
18 Jeremiah Robinson-Earl NO 5.2 2.7 1.0
19 Daniel Theis NO 5.0 3.6 1.3
20 Jaylen Nowell NO 4.5 1.4 0.7
21 Craig Porter Jr. CLE 3.7 1.6 1.3
22 Jaylon Tyson CLE 3.7 2.0 0.7
23 JT Thor CLE 3.5 1.9 0.4
24 Luke Travers CLE 3.2 2.5 1.0
25 Trey Jemison III NO 2.9 2.6 0.6
26 Antonio Reeves NO 2.7 1.3 0.5
27 Tristan Thompson CLE 2.5 2.1 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.