NBA games

LAL @ MEM

NBA FedExForum ·Final
114–131
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
LAL27262833114
MEM35243636131

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (MEM) / 10 (LAL) games this season
LAL away
home MEM
25% 75%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
LeBron James S 35 39 7 6
Austin Reaves S 35 19 3 5
Cam Reddish 26 15 6 2
D'Angelo Russell S 22 12 1 3
Max Christie 19 8 3 3
Jaxson Hayes S 35 8 10 1
Gabe Vincent 23 6 1 1
Dalton Knecht S 27 3 4 2
Christian Koloko 13 2 2 0
Bronny James 5 2 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jaren Jackson Jr. S 32 20 6 1
Jaylen Wells S 28 20 3 1
Ja Morant S 24 20 4 5
Scotty Pippen Jr. 26 14 6 4
Jake LaRavia 29 13 5 8
Santi Aldama S 31 11 12 3
Jay Huff 14 11 3 4
Zach Edey S 15 8 7 0
Luke Kennard 18 6 1 2
Brandon Clarke 19 6 3 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Zach Edey · Layup (2 pts) · 11:29 Q1
"Zach Edey makes layup (Ja Morant assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Anthony Davis LAL
19%
2 Ja Morant MEM
12%
3 Jaren Jackson Jr. MEM
11%
4 LeBron James LAL
10%
5 Rui Hachimura LAL
9%
6 Austin Reaves LAL
9%
7 Zach Edey MEM
8%
8 D'Angelo Russell LAL
7%
9 Santi Aldama MEM
7%
10 Jaylen Wells MEM
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
2%
Dunk
4%
Free Throw
76%
Jumper
2%
Layup
15%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Anthony Davis LAL 28.8 11.0 3.4
2 Ja Morant MEM 23.5 6.4 9.2
3 LeBron James LAL 21.2 5.9 6.4
4 Jaren Jackson Jr. MEM 20.6 5.6 1.8
5 Austin Reaves LAL 17.5 4.9 4.8
6 Santi Aldama MEM 14.2 6.7 3.5
7 Rui Hachimura LAL 13.6 6.4 1.6
8 D'Angelo Russell LAL 11.8 2.8 5.6
9 Scotty Pippen Jr. MEM 11.8 3.2 6.0
10 Zach Edey MEM 11.3 7.0 1.1
11 Jaylen Wells MEM 10.8 3.7 2.1
12 Dalton Knecht LAL 9.7 2.7 1.4
13 Jake LaRavia MEM 9.1 5.7 3.6
14 Jay Huff MEM 8.7 3.4 1.1
15 Jaxson Hayes LAL 5.6 4.3 1.1
16 Brandon Clarke MEM 5.6 2.6 1.0
17 Max Christie LAL 5.0 2.2 1.0
18 Gabe Vincent LAL 4.7 1.5 0.9
19 Luke Kennard MEM 4.2 1.4 1.3
20 Cam Reddish LAL 4.0 2.2 0.7
21 Bronny James LAL 2.8 1.4 0.4
22 Yuki Kawamura MEM 2.5 0.6 2.0
23 Colin Castleton MEM 2.2 2.1 1.1

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.