NBA games

SA @ HOU

NBA Toyota Center (Houston) ·Final
100–127
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
SA19193329100
HOU31323133127

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (HOU) / 10 (SA) games this season
SA away
home HOU
21% 79%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Victor Wembanyama S 25 15 6 0
Julian Champagnie S 28 13 3 2
Sandro Mamukelashvili 15 10 7 1
Keldon Johnson 19 10 4 1
Malaki Branham 20 10 4 2
Chris Paul S 20 10 2 4
Charles Bassey 8 6 6 0
Zach Collins 15 6 1 3
Stephon Castle S 25 5 2 0
Blake Wesley 16 5 0 2
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jalen Green S 31 21 5 4
Fred VanVleet S 25 21 7 10
Alperen Sengun S 24 16 5 4
Jabari Smith Jr. S 24 12 4 0
Tari Eason 22 12 4 1
Jock Landale 18 11 6 0
Dillon Brooks S 25 10 2 0
Amen Thompson 24 8 6 4
Reed Sheppard 20 5 2 3
Jeff Green 5 5 1 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Alperen Sengun · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:40 Q1
"Alperen Sengun makes 11-foot jumper (Fred VanVleet assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Alperen Sengun HOU
18%
2 Victor Wembanyama SA
12%
3 Jalen Green HOU
12%
4 Julian Champagnie SA
10%
5 Jabari Smith Jr. HOU
10%
6 Dillon Brooks HOU
10%
7 Harrison Barnes SA
9%
8 Chris Paul SA
8%
9 Fred VanVleet HOU
8%
10 Keldon Johnson SA
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
10%
Dunk
9%
Free Throw
25%
Jumper
31%
Layup
25%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jalen Green HOU 21.5 4.3 3.1
2 Victor Wembanyama SA 19.2 10.6 3.5
3 Alperen Sengun HOU 17.8 10.3 3.6
4 Keldon Johnson SA 12.5 5.5 1.4
5 Jabari Smith Jr. HOU 12.3 7.0 1.7
6 Fred VanVleet HOU 12.1 2.9 5.4
7 Dillon Brooks HOU 11.6 3.9 1.4
8 Chris Paul SA 11.4 3.6 6.9
9 Amen Thompson HOU 11.0 5.9 1.9
10 Harrison Barnes SA 10.3 3.5 1.5
11 Julian Champagnie SA 9.5 4.6 1.3
12 Tari Eason HOU 9.1 4.5 1.5
13 Malaki Branham SA 8.4 2.2 1.2
14 Stephon Castle SA 7.7 2.9 2.6
15 Cam Whitmore HOU 6.1 1.8 1.0
16 Zach Collins SA 5.8 3.3 1.6
17 Sandro Mamukelashvili SA 5.3 2.1 0.9
18 Reed Sheppard HOU 5.2 1.9 1.4
19 Riley Minix SA 4.8 1.4 0.4
20 Aaron Holiday HOU 3.8 0.8 0.8
21 Jock Landale HOU 3.5 2.1 0.6
22 Sidy Cissoko SA 3.3 1.9 0.7
23 Blake Wesley SA 3.1 1.5 1.8
24 Jeff Green HOU 2.8 1.9 0.7
25 Charles Bassey SA 2.6 2.3 0.3
26 Jae'Sean Tate HOU 2.1 1.7 0.6
27 Harrison Ingram SA 1.5 2.0 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.