NBA games

GS @ BOS

NBA TD Garden ·Final
118–112
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
GS19323136118
BOS24164131112

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (BOS) / 10 (GS) games this season
GS away
home BOS
69% 31%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Stephen Curry S 34 27 7 9
Buddy Hield 29 16 6 1
Andrew Wiggins S 31 16 2 0
Kyle Anderson 20 11 5 4
Jonathan Kuminga 18 10 4 1
Draymond Green S 30 9 6 4
Moses Moody S 13 9 6 0
Trayce Jackson-Davis S 16 8 2 1
Gary Payton II 18 6 3 1
Kevon Looney 16 6 10 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jayson Tatum S 37 32 4 2
Derrick White S 36 26 6 3
Payton Pritchard 32 16 3 3
Neemias Queta S 28 14 8 0
Al Horford S 30 10 7 3
Jrue Holiday S 33 6 9 8
Sam Hauser 22 6 5 1
Luke Kornet 14 2 3 2
Jordan Walsh 8 0 2 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Neemias Queta · Dunk (2 pts) · 11:47 Q1
"Neemias Queta makes 1-foot alley oop dunk shot (Jrue Holiday assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jaylen Brown BOS
12%
2 Andrew Wiggins GS
11%
3 Jayson Tatum BOS
11%
4 Trayce Jackson-Davis GS
10%
5 Neemias Queta BOS
9%
6 Stephen Curry GS
8%
7 Gary Payton II GS
8%
8 Derrick White BOS
8%
9 Al Horford BOS
8%
10 Draymond Green GS
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
18%
Dunk
6%
Free Throw
19%
Jumper
34%
Layup
23%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jayson Tatum BOS 26.6 7.6 5.7
2 Jaylen Brown BOS 23.1 5.6 3.8
3 Derrick White BOS 18.0 4.3 3.5
4 Stephen Curry GS 17.2 3.7 5.1
5 Buddy Hield GS 17.0 4.2 2.7
6 Andrew Wiggins GS 14.2 4.5 2.1
7 Payton Pritchard BOS 13.7 3.4 3.2
8 Jonathan Kuminga GS 12.9 4.5 1.7
9 Jrue Holiday BOS 12.2 3.7 2.7
10 Moses Moody GS 10.4 2.6 1.7
11 Draymond Green GS 9.4 5.6 3.7
12 Trayce Jackson-Davis GS 8.8 6.0 2.2
13 Al Horford BOS 7.8 4.4 2.0
14 Sam Hauser BOS 7.7 4.3 1.3
15 Luke Kornet BOS 6.5 5.1 1.3
16 Lindy Waters III GS 5.8 2.7 1.3
17 Kevon Looney GS 5.7 6.4 1.8
18 Kyle Anderson GS 5.4 3.0 1.9
19 Gary Payton II GS 5.3 2.1 1.4
20 Neemias Queta BOS 5.3 5.4 1.0
21 Jordan Walsh BOS 5.0 2.4 0.7
22 Xavier Tillman BOS 4.4 3.5 1.0
23 Baylor Scheierman BOS 3.3 1.6 0.6
24 Jaden Springer BOS 3.1 1.3 0.8
25 Pat Spencer GS 2.9 1.3 1.2
26 Gui Santos GS 1.5 1.0 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.