NBA games

NY @ ATL

NBA State Farm Arena ·Final
116–121
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
NY22392827116
ATL26392432121

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (ATL) / 10 (NY) games this season
NY away
home ATL
56% 44%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Karl-Anthony Towns S 38 34 16 1
Jalen Brunson S 37 21 3 4
Miles McBride 28 16 4 7
OG Anunoby S 41 15 6 3
Josh Hart S 38 14 8 8
Mikal Bridges S 39 10 2 5
Tyler Kolek 9 6 0 1
Jericho Sims 10 0 2 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Zaccharie Risacher S 37 33 7 3
Jalen Johnson S 39 23 15 7
Trae Young S 35 23 6 10
Clint Capela S 28 18 6 1
Garrison Mathews 20 9 3 2
Keaton Wallace 13 7 0 0
Dyson Daniels S 37 6 5 2
Onyeka Okongwu 20 2 4 5
David Roddy 11 0 2 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Zaccharie Risacher · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:44 Q1
"Zaccharie Risacher makes 25-foot three point jumper (Clint Capela assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Trae Young ATL
13%
2 Jalen Brunson NY
11%
3 Jalen Johnson ATL
10%
4 Mikal Bridges NY
9%
5 Kobe Bufkin ATL
9%
6 Karl-Anthony Towns NY
9%
7 Clint Capela ATL
9%
8 Dyson Daniels ATL
8%
9 OG Anunoby NY
7%
10 Zaccharie Risacher ATL
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
33%
Dunk
6%
Free Throw
13%
Jumper
26%
Layup
22%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jalen Brunson NY 25.1 3.2 5.7
2 Trae Young ATL 22.5 4.2 10.7
3 Karl-Anthony Towns NY 21.2 11.3 2.6
4 Jalen Johnson ATL 20.2 9.3 5.1
5 Kobe Bufkin ATL 15.9 3.2 4.0
6 Mikal Bridges NY 15.3 4.0 2.8
7 Miles McBride NY 13.8 2.5 3.1
8 OG Anunoby NY 13.0 4.6 2.3
9 Dyson Daniels ATL 12.1 4.2 2.6
10 Onyeka Okongwu ATL 12.0 6.0 1.5
11 Josh Hart NY 10.8 6.8 3.8
12 Zaccharie Risacher ATL 10.8 3.8 1.5
13 David Roddy ATL 10.5 5.3 2.1
14 Garrison Mathews ATL 9.1 1.7 1.5
15 Clint Capela ATL 8.2 6.2 1.2
16 Tyler Kolek NY 7.0 1.8 2.1
17 Larry Nance Jr. ATL 6.9 3.4 1.4
18 Keaton Wallace ATL 5.6 2.0 1.6
19 Pacome Dadiet NY 4.9 1.7 0.5
20 Mouhamed Gueye ATL 3.6 2.6 0.8
21 Jericho Sims NY 3.4 4.4 0.6
22 Ariel Hukporti NY 2.2 2.5 0.3
23 Jacob Toppin NY 1.7 0.9 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.