NBA games

ORL @ IND

NBA Gainbridge Fieldhouse ·Final
111–118
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
ORL26312826111
IND38232631118

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (IND) / 10 (ORL) games this season
ORL away
home IND
53% 47%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Franz Wagner S 39 28 8 6
Jalen Suggs S 36 15 5 6
Moritz Wagner 15 14 1 1
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope S 37 13 5 2
Anthony Black 27 12 0 6
Goga Bitadze S 30 10 12 2
Jonathan Isaac 16 9 6 0
Gary Harris 14 5 1 0
Tristan da Silva S 23 5 0 3
Jett Howard 3 0 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Bennedict Mathurin S 34 20 11 1
Tyrese Haliburton S 37 17 3 4
Pascal Siakam S 33 17 4 3
Myles Turner S 36 17 10 2
Jarace Walker 23 17 6 0
T.J. McConnell 17 15 0 5
Ben Sheppard 11 6 0 0
Andrew Nembhard S 31 5 2 5
Obi Toppin 17 4 0 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Pascal Siakam · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:31 Q1
"Pascal Siakam makes 18-foot jumper (Tyrese Haliburton assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Pascal Siakam IND
11%
2 Franz Wagner ORL
11%
3 Tyrese Haliburton IND
11%
4 Jalen Suggs ORL
10%
5 Myles Turner IND
10%
6 Bennedict Mathurin IND
10%
7 Andrew Nembhard IND
9%
8 Goga Bitadze ORL
8%
9 Aaron Nesmith IND
7%
10 Tristan da Silva ORL
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
22%
Dunk
5%
Free Throw
17%
Jumper
38%
Layup
19%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Pascal Siakam IND 18.7 5.7 4.7
2 Franz Wagner ORL 17.6 4.6 3.8
3 Jalen Suggs ORL 17.4 5.5 4.6
4 Myles Turner IND 16.7 6.3 2.0
5 Bennedict Mathurin IND 16.0 4.3 2.2
6 Tyrese Haliburton IND 14.7 3.9 6.3
7 Obi Toppin IND 9.2 3.4 1.6
8 Andrew Nembhard IND 8.8 2.4 3.6
9 Anthony Black ORL 8.7 3.8 3.9
10 T.J. McConnell IND 8.6 2.7 3.7
11 Moritz Wagner ORL 8.5 4.2 1.1
12 Ben Sheppard IND 7.5 2.2 1.4
13 Aaron Nesmith IND 7.2 2.8 0.9
14 Kentavious Caldwell-Pope ORL 7.1 2.5 1.4
15 Tristan da Silva ORL 6.8 3.0 1.2
16 Jett Howard ORL 6.1 1.7 0.8
17 Jarace Walker IND 5.6 2.6 1.2
18 Goga Bitadze ORL 5.3 5.9 0.6
19 Gary Harris ORL 5.1 1.9 0.7
20 Cole Anthony ORL 4.9 2.2 2.3
21 Jonathan Isaac ORL 4.8 3.2 0.5
22 Enrique Freeman IND 4.5 3.2 0.6
23 Quenton Jackson IND 3.7 1.5 1.2
24 Cory Joseph ORL 3.5 1.4 0.9
25 Caleb Houstan ORL 2.8 1.3 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.