NBA games

DET @ CHA

NBA Spectrum Center ·Final
107–108
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
DET24213131107
CHA23233131108

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (CHA) / 10 (DET) games this season
DET away
home CHA
38% 62%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jaden Ivey S 34 21 4 5
Cade Cunningham S 38 20 10 10
Tobias Harris S 32 14 7 3
Paul Reed 12 13 2 0
Tim Hardaway Jr. S 31 13 3 3
Ronald Holland II 16 8 4 0
Simone Fontecchio 20 7 5 1
Isaiah Stewart 26 6 7 6
Malik Beasley 24 5 1 5
Jalen Duren S 8 0 3 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Miles Bridges S 35 27 7 2
LaMelo Ball S 32 25 6 8
Brandon Miller S 29 19 6 4
Grant Williams 27 12 7 2
Taj Gibson S 15 7 4 0
Cody Martin 28 7 4 3
Tre Mann 21 4 3 2
Moussa Diabate 7 4 5 0
Tidjane Salaun 12 3 1 0
Josh Green S 24 0 2 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
LaMelo Ball · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:32 Q1
"LaMelo Ball makes 12-foot two point shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 LaMelo Ball CHA
24%
2 Cade Cunningham DET
11%
3 Jaden Ivey DET
11%
4 Jalen Duren DET
9%
5 Tobias Harris DET
9%
6 Miles Bridges CHA
8%
7 Taj Gibson CHA
8%
8 Brandon Miller CHA
7%
9 Josh Green CHA
6%
10 Tim Hardaway Jr. DET
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
27%
Dunk
2%
Free Throw
16%
Jumper
34%
Layup
21%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 LaMelo Ball CHA 24.9 4.5 6.4
2 Cade Cunningham DET 23.6 6.1 7.3
3 Jaden Ivey DET 20.1 4.2 3.9
4 Tre Mann CHA 18.6 3.9 4.1
5 Brandon Miller CHA 13.7 3.5 2.4
6 Tobias Harris DET 13.1 7.0 2.5
7 Miles Bridges CHA 12.6 5.8 2.5
8 Tim Hardaway Jr. DET 11.2 1.8 1.5
9 Jalen Duren DET 10.3 9.7 2.5
10 Malik Beasley DET 9.8 2.5 1.5
11 Cody Martin CHA 8.8 3.8 1.3
12 Grant Williams CHA 7.7 3.1 2.1
13 Tidjane Salaun CHA 7.7 4.4 1.5
14 Nick Smith Jr. CHA 7.0 2.0 1.4
15 Seth Curry CHA 6.8 2.3 1.4
16 Simone Fontecchio DET 6.3 2.9 0.9
17 Josh Green CHA 6.0 1.7 1.0
18 Ronald Holland II DET 5.7 3.1 0.9
19 KJ Simpson CHA 5.1 2.4 1.7
20 Isaiah Stewart DET 5.0 5.8 1.5
21 Moussa Diabate CHA 5.0 4.0 0.7
22 Wendell Moore Jr. DET 3.6 2.0 0.6
23 Jared Rhoden CHA 3.5 2.0 1.1
24 Taj Gibson CHA 3.4 2.7 0.5
25 Vasilije Micic CHA 3.3 1.7 1.8
26 Marcus Sasser DET 3.0 1.0 1.7
27 Paul Reed DET 2.5 2.7 1.1

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.