NBA games

SA @ LAC

NBA Intuit Dome ·Final
104–113
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
SA40163018104
LAC14343431113

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (LAC) / 10 (SA) games this season
SA away
home LAC
35% 65%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Victor Wembanyama S 34 24 13 3
Julian Champagnie S 38 21 5 2
Chris Paul S 34 14 6 10
Stephon Castle 20 11 4 1
Keldon Johnson 28 10 5 1
Malaki Branham 18 7 0 0
Sandro Mamukelashvili 5 5 0 0
Jeremy Sochan S 12 4 3 1
Zach Collins 14 4 3 1
Harrison Barnes S 38 4 6 3
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Norman Powell S 34 23 1 3
Amir Coffey 26 21 6 1
Ivica Zubac S 37 17 13 4
James Harden S 33 17 8 4
Kris Dunn 25 11 3 1
Derrick Jones Jr. S 22 10 2 2
Kevin Porter Jr. 19 6 8 7
Terance Mann S 19 5 2 1
Nicolas Batum 20 3 1 2
Kai Jones 4 0 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jeremy Sochan · Dunk (2 pts) · 11:40 Q1
"Jeremy Sochan makes 2-foot dunk (Victor Wembanyama assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jeremy Sochan SA
14%
2 James Harden LAC
12%
3 Victor Wembanyama SA
12%
4 Ivica Zubac LAC
11%
5 Norman Powell LAC
10%
6 Derrick Jones Jr. LAC
9%
7 Terance Mann LAC
9%
8 Harrison Barnes SA
8%
9 Julian Champagnie SA
7%
10 Chris Paul SA
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
7%
Dunk
10%
Free Throw
18%
Jumper
27%
Layup
37%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 James Harden LAC 20.1 6.4 8.6
2 Norman Powell LAC 18.6 3.1 2.2
3 Victor Wembanyama SA 18.2 10.2 3.3
4 Jeremy Sochan SA 16.7 8.1 3.0
5 Ivica Zubac LAC 13.2 10.0 2.0
6 Keldon Johnson SA 12.9 5.4 1.4
7 Chris Paul SA 10.9 3.4 6.5
8 Harrison Barnes SA 10.3 3.2 1.4
9 Derrick Jones Jr. LAC 9.7 3.2 1.3
10 Julian Champagnie SA 9.1 4.6 1.4
11 Malaki Branham SA 9.1 2.2 1.3
12 Kevin Porter Jr. LAC 8.6 3.4 2.8
13 Stephon Castle SA 8.5 2.7 2.8
14 Jordan Miller LAC 8.3 2.6 1.4
15 Amir Coffey LAC 7.5 2.1 1.0
16 Bones Hyland LAC 7.5 2.9 1.3
17 Terance Mann LAC 6.5 3.1 1.4
18 Zach Collins SA 6.3 3.2 1.8
19 Kris Dunn LAC 6.3 3.5 1.7
20 Kobe Brown LAC 5.8 4.3 1.7
21 Sandro Mamukelashvili SA 5.3 2.1 1.0
22 Kai Jones LAC 5.3 3.7 0.8
23 Sidy Cissoko SA 4.3 2.2 0.9
24 Nicolas Batum LAC 4.1 3.0 1.6
25 Blake Wesley SA 3.9 1.9 2.0
26 Charles Bassey SA 3.4 2.6 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.