NBA games

PHI @ PHX

NBA Mortgage Matchup Center ·Final
116–118
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
PHI26373023116
PHX28372924118

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (PHX) / 10 (PHI) games this season
PHI away
home PHX
13% 87%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Tyrese Maxey S 41 32 3 2
Guerschon Yabusele 30 19 7 6
Paul George S 32 15 5 4
Kyle Lowry 28 13 2 7
Kelly Oubre Jr. S 32 11 4 1
Eric Gordon 18 10 1 1
Andre Drummond S 15 8 5 0
Caleb Martin S 39 5 10 5
Jared McCain 3 3 1 1
KJ Martin 2 0 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Kevin Durant S 39 35 4 6
Bradley Beal S 34 17 5 3
Royce O'Neale 24 15 5 0
Jusuf Nurkic S 28 15 15 2
Grayson Allen 24 14 2 0
Devin Booker S 38 13 3 6
Mason Plumlee 14 5 3 1
Tyus Jones S 29 4 2 5
Ryan Dunn 10 0 4 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Andre Drummond · Free Throw (1 pts) · 10:53 Q1
"Andre Drummond makes free throw 1 of 2"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Tyrese Maxey PHI
13%
2 Bradley Beal PHX
12%
3 Kevin Durant PHX
12%
4 Kelly Oubre Jr. PHI
11%
5 Andre Drummond PHI
11%
6 Devin Booker PHX
10%
7 Jusuf Nurkic PHX
9%
8 Caleb Martin PHI
8%
9 Tyus Jones PHX
8%
10 Kyle Lowry PHI
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
29%
Dunk
5%
Free Throw
13%
Jumper
34%
Layup
19%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Kevin Durant PHX 23.9 6.3 3.9
2 Devin Booker PHX 23.8 4.1 5.3
3 Tyrese Maxey PHI 21.0 2.9 4.5
4 Bradley Beal PHX 17.2 4.0 3.8
5 Kelly Oubre Jr. PHI 15.5 4.0 1.6
6 Tyus Jones PHX 11.1 3.1 6.1
7 Royce O'Neale PHX 10.5 5.6 2.7
8 Andre Drummond PHI 10.0 10.8 1.3
9 Caleb Martin PHI 9.9 4.5 1.9
10 Jusuf Nurkic PHX 9.8 8.7 1.8
11 Jared McCain PHI 9.1 3.3 1.6
12 Ryan Dunn PHX 7.9 3.3 1.3
13 Grayson Allen PHX 7.6 2.9 1.6
14 Guerschon Yabusele PHI 7.0 4.6 1.8
15 KJ Martin PHI 6.6 3.6 1.2
16 Kyle Lowry PHI 6.3 2.5 2.7
17 Eric Gordon PHI 6.1 1.6 1.1
18 Monte Morris PHX 5.9 1.9 2.4
19 Ricky Council IV PHI 5.6 2.3 1.1
20 Mason Plumlee PHX 5.4 5.4 1.4
21 Josh Okogie PHX 4.6 1.8 1.1
22 Oso Ighodaro PHX 4.1 3.0 1.1
23 Bol Bol PHX 4.1 3.4 0.9
24 Reggie Jackson PHI 4.0 1.2 1.6
25 Adem Bona PHI 2.9 2.0 0.5
26 Damion Lee PHX 2.9 0.8 0.8

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.