NBA games

TOR @ DEN

NBA Ball Arena ·Final
119–121
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
TOR37272926119
DEN34252933121

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (DEN) / 10 (TOR) games this season
TOR away
home DEN
40% 60%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Gradey Dick S 36 26 2 5
Jakob Poeltl S 32 24 11 3
RJ Barrett S 33 16 6 10
Ochai Agbaji S 33 16 5 4
Davion Mitchell S 30 13 1 8
Jamal Shead 17 8 2 3
Jamison Battle 12 5 2 0
Jonathan Mogbo 21 4 6 2
Ja'Kobe Walter 9 3 2 1
Bruno Fernando 3 2 0 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Nikola Jokic S 38 28 14 13
Russell Westbrook S 34 21 6 6
Michael Porter Jr. S 36 19 9 3
Christian Braun S 36 17 4 0
Peyton Watson 31 16 3 1
Julian Strawther 26 13 2 3
Aaron Gordon S 4 3 0 1
DeAndre Jordan 6 2 4 1
Zeke Nnaji 14 2 1 1
Hunter Tyson 15 0 1 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Russell Westbrook · Free Throw (1 pts) · 11:39 Q1
"Russell Westbrook makes free throw 1 of 2"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jakob Poeltl TOR
13%
2 Nikola Jokic DEN
12%
3 Michael Porter Jr. DEN
11%
4 RJ Barrett TOR
11%
5 Aaron Gordon DEN
10%
6 Gradey Dick TOR
10%
7 Christian Braun DEN
9%
8 Russell Westbrook DEN
8%
9 Ochai Agbaji TOR
8%
10 Davion Mitchell TOR
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
2%
Dunk
31%
Free Throw
10%
Jumper
24%
Layup
33%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 RJ Barrett TOR 26.5 5.1 6.9
2 Nikola Jokic DEN 25.7 11.0 8.4
3 Gradey Dick TOR 20.2 3.9 2.2
4 Jakob Poeltl TOR 16.7 11.7 3.3
5 Michael Porter Jr. DEN 16.3 5.8 2.2
6 Aaron Gordon DEN 15.7 6.0 3.9
7 Ochai Agbaji TOR 13.3 4.9 2.5
8 Christian Braun DEN 13.2 4.9 2.1
9 Julian Strawther DEN 12.9 2.8 2.0
10 Russell Westbrook DEN 10.1 3.1 5.2
11 Davion Mitchell TOR 9.2 2.8 5.9
12 Chris Boucher TOR 8.5 3.6 1.1
13 Jamal Shead TOR 7.4 1.5 4.5
14 Jonathan Mogbo TOR 6.1 4.5 1.8
15 DeAndre Jordan DEN 5.9 5.9 1.1
16 Jamison Battle TOR 5.5 2.2 1.1
17 Zeke Nnaji DEN 5.4 2.3 0.7
18 Peyton Watson DEN 5.0 2.5 0.8
19 Hunter Tyson DEN 4.7 3.1 1.2
20 Dario Saric DEN 4.2 2.7 1.0
21 Trey Alexander DEN 4.2 1.9 1.6
22 Bruno Fernando TOR 4.1 4.2 0.7
23 Jalen Pickett DEN 2.9 1.1 1.1
24 Spencer Jones DEN 2.5 1.2 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.