NBA games

IND @ DAL

NBA American Airlines Center ·Final
134–127
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
IND36273338134
DAL29303632127

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (DAL) / 10 (IND) games this season
IND away
home DAL
49% 51%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Myles Turner S 33 30 11 0
Tyrese Haliburton S 36 25 4 12
Pascal Siakam S 36 23 6 4
Bennedict Mathurin S 32 16 7 3
T.J. McConnell 20 12 3 2
Andrew Nembhard S 29 11 3 3
Obi Toppin 24 11 6 2
Ben Sheppard 17 3 1 2
Jarace Walker 14 3 5 2
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Luka Doncic S 42 34 7 15
Kyrie Irving S 40 27 5 4
Naji Marshall 34 20 5 6
Klay Thompson S 34 16 2 3
Spencer Dinwiddie 23 14 3 1
P.J. Washington S 35 8 11 0
Daniel Gafford S 15 8 4 0
Quentin Grimes 10 0 1 0
Dwight Powell 7 0 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Andrew Nembhard · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:40 Q1
"Andrew Nembhard makes 28-foot three point jumper (Pascal Siakam assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Myles Turner IND
12%
2 Pascal Siakam IND
11%
3 Daniel Gafford DAL
10%
4 Bennedict Mathurin IND
10%
5 Kyrie Irving DAL
9%
6 P.J. Washington DAL
9%
7 Andrew Nembhard IND
9%
8 Aaron Nesmith IND
8%
9 Tyrese Haliburton IND
7%
10 Luka Doncic DAL
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
42%
Dunk
9%
Free Throw
3%
Jumper
19%
Layup
26%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Luka Doncic DAL 28.6 8.4 7.1
2 Kyrie Irving DAL 23.0 4.5 4.6
3 Pascal Siakam IND 17.6 6.0 4.8
4 Myles Turner IND 15.4 5.9 2.2
5 Bennedict Mathurin IND 15.4 4.0 2.2
6 Tyrese Haliburton IND 14.2 4.0 6.1
7 Klay Thompson DAL 11.8 3.5 2.0
8 P.J. Washington DAL 10.9 6.8 1.7
9 Dereck Lively II DAL 9.4 7.4 2.0
10 Obi Toppin IND 9.1 3.3 1.6
11 Daniel Gafford DAL 8.5 6.3 1.3
12 T.J. McConnell IND 8.4 2.4 3.8
13 Jaden Hardy DAL 8.0 2.0 2.1
14 Aaron Nesmith IND 7.6 3.1 1.1
15 Andrew Nembhard IND 7.4 1.9 3.5
16 Ben Sheppard IND 7.4 2.4 1.2
17 Jazian Gortman DAL 6.7 1.4 1.3
18 Naji Marshall DAL 6.5 3.6 2.4
19 Quentin Grimes DAL 5.9 3.1 1.2
20 Spencer Dinwiddie DAL 5.5 1.6 1.5
21 Jarace Walker IND 5.4 2.4 1.4
22 Olivier-Maxence Prosper DAL 5.1 2.4 0.8
23 Enrique Freeman IND 4.5 3.4 0.6
24 Quenton Jackson IND 3.8 1.5 1.2
25 Dwight Powell DAL 3.0 2.2 0.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.