NBA games

POR @ NO

NBA Smoothie King Center ·Final
118–100
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
POR21273139118
NO30252718100

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (NO) / 10 (POR) games this season
POR away
home NO
66% 34%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Anfernee Simons S 34 24 1 4
Dalano Banton 12 20 1 1
Deandre Ayton S 32 19 13 0
Toumani Camara S 37 16 5 4
Jerami Grant S 36 16 3 4
Deni Avdija S 21 7 6 3
Rayan Rupert 19 6 2 0
Scoot Henderson 25 5 2 5
Donovan Clingan 16 4 3 0
Kris Murray 8 1 1 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Brandon Ingram S 33 27 5 7
Brandon Boston S 37 20 3 4
Jose Alvarado S 34 18 1 6
Jeremiah Robinson-Earl S 34 12 5 1
Jaylen Nowell 23 11 2 1
Yves Missi S 27 4 7 3
Daniel Theis 20 4 4 1
Trey Jemison III 2 2 1 1
Jamal Cain 12 2 5 0
Javonte Green 17 0 1 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Brandon Ingram · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:23 Q1
"Brandon Ingram makes 15-foot pullup jump shot (Yves Missi assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Brandon Ingram NO
17%
2 Anfernee Simons POR
12%
3 Jerami Grant POR
12%
4 Yves Missi NO
11%
5 Javonte Green NO
10%
6 Deni Avdija POR
10%
7 Toumani Camara POR
9%
8 Deandre Ayton POR
9%
9 Jose Alvarado NO
9%
10 Jabari Walker POR
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
22%
Dunk
5%
Free Throw
10%
Jumper
32%
Layup
32%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Brandon Ingram NO 25.2 6.2 4.6
2 Anfernee Simons POR 20.4 3.4 5.3
3 Jerami Grant POR 17.1 4.4 2.3
4 Scoot Henderson POR 15.3 3.7 5.1
5 Deandre Ayton POR 13.2 9.8 1.7
6 Deni Avdija POR 11.7 6.0 3.4
7 Toumani Camara POR 10.7 4.3 2.5
8 Jose Alvarado NO 8.0 2.8 4.0
9 Dalano Banton POR 7.0 2.2 2.5
10 Rayan Rupert POR 6.7 2.6 1.3
11 Kris Murray POR 6.6 3.0 1.4
12 Yves Missi NO 6.2 5.3 1.3
13 Javonte Green NO 5.8 3.9 1.2
14 Donovan Clingan POR 5.6 7.9 0.8
15 Jamal Cain NO 5.6 2.4 0.6
16 Daniel Theis NO 5.6 3.5 1.4
17 Brandon Boston NO 5.3 1.9 1.3
18 Jabari Walker POR 5.1 3.2 0.9
19 Jeremiah Robinson-Earl NO 4.8 2.7 0.9
20 Duop Reath POR 3.6 1.5 0.7
21 Antonio Reeves NO 3.1 1.4 0.6
22 Trey Jemison III NO 2.7 2.7 0.6
23 Karlo Matkovic NO 1.7 1.8 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.