NBA games

ORL @ OKC

NBA Paycom Center ·Final
86–102
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
ORL2617152886
OKC39192618102

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (OKC) / 10 (ORL) games this season
ORL away
home OKC
18% 82%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Franz Wagner S 34 22 4 2
Jalen Suggs S 35 19 6 6
Goga Bitadze S 27 11 9 4
Tristan da Silva S 34 9 3 2
Moritz Wagner 21 9 7 1
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope S 31 6 5 2
Jonathan Isaac 11 4 1 0
Anthony Black 21 3 3 2
Cory Joseph 3 3 0 0
Jett Howard 11 0 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jalen Williams S 35 23 4 1
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander S 35 21 6 9
Chet Holmgren S 22 14 9 1
Isaiah Joe 22 13 4 1
Aaron Wiggins 17 11 5 1
Luguentz Dort S 28 6 3 1
Cason Wallace S 27 4 4 1
Ajay Mitchell 12 4 1 1
Dillon Jones 10 3 1 0
Alex Caruso 21 3 0 5

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jalen Williams · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:41 Q1
"Jalen Williams makes 24-foot three point jumper (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Franz Wagner ORL
13%
2 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC
13%
3 Jalen Williams OKC
13%
4 Jalen Suggs ORL
13%
5 Chet Holmgren OKC
12%
6 Luguentz Dort OKC
9%
7 Tristan da Silva ORL
9%
8 Aaron Wiggins OKC
9%
9 Kentavious Caldwell-Pope ORL
7%
10 Goga Bitadze ORL
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
28%
Dunk
5%
Free Throw
6%
Jumper
33%
Layup
28%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC 23.7 6.1 5.9
2 Jalen Williams OKC 16.6 4.9 4.1
3 Jalen Suggs ORL 16.4 5.2 4.2
4 Chet Holmgren OKC 16.1 8.3 2.5
5 Franz Wagner ORL 14.9 4.6 3.6
6 Luguentz Dort OKC 9.7 3.5 1.5
7 Anthony Black ORL 9.5 3.7 3.9
8 Aaron Wiggins OKC 8.9 3.9 1.9
9 Ousmane Dieng OKC 8.5 4.2 1.9
10 Cason Wallace OKC 8.3 3.8 1.8
11 Moritz Wagner ORL 8.2 3.9 1.1
12 Isaiah Joe OKC 7.9 2.5 1.4
13 Kentavious Caldwell-Pope ORL 7.1 2.4 1.4
14 Ajay Mitchell OKC 6.8 2.1 1.7
15 Tristan da Silva ORL 6.4 2.9 0.9
16 Jett Howard ORL 6.1 1.7 0.8
17 Gary Harris ORL 5.3 2.0 0.7
18 Cole Anthony ORL 5.2 2.3 2.3
19 Dillon Jones OKC 5.0 3.3 1.7
20 Alex Caruso OKC 4.8 2.8 1.6
21 Jonathan Isaac ORL 4.7 3.5 0.5
22 Cory Joseph ORL 3.5 1.5 0.9
23 Malevy Leons OKC 3.5 2.5 0.6
24 Goga Bitadze ORL 3.0 4.5 0.2
25 Caleb Houstan ORL 2.9 1.3 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.