NBA games

CHA @ MIN

NBA Target Center ·Final
93–114
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
CHA2421262293
MIN24333423114

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (MIN) / 10 (CHA) games this season
CHA away
home MIN
56% 44%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
LaMelo Ball S 25 19 2 2
Miles Bridges S 25 10 6 4
Tre Mann 21 10 4 6
Brandon Miller S 21 10 2 1
Josh Green S 26 8 0 0
Cody Martin 19 6 3 1
Tidjane Salaun 22 5 2 1
Taj Gibson S 16 5 4 0
Grant Williams 22 5 3 1
Seth Curry 10 4 2 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Naz Reid 26 25 9 2
Anthony Edwards S 29 21 5 1
Donte DiVincenzo 28 14 5 3
Julius Randle S 25 13 4 4
Mike Conley S 23 11 5 4
Jaden McDaniels S 22 9 3 0
Rudy Gobert S 30 8 8 4
Nickeil Alexander-Walker 21 6 2 3
Rob Dillingham 8 4 0 2
Luka Garza 7 2 3 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Taj Gibson · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:37 Q1
"Taj Gibson makes 23-foot three point jumper (Miles Bridges assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 LaMelo Ball CHA
13%
2 Julius Randle MIN
12%
3 Rudy Gobert MIN
11%
4 Miles Bridges CHA
10%
5 Anthony Edwards MIN
9%
6 Jaden McDaniels MIN
9%
7 Brandon Miller CHA
8%
8 Grant Williams CHA
8%
9 Josh Green CHA
7%
10 Seth Curry CHA
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
69%
Dunk
1%
Free Throw
2%
Jumper
18%
Layup
10%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Julius Randle MIN 24.6 6.9 5.3
2 LaMelo Ball CHA 24.5 4.8 6.5
3 Anthony Edwards MIN 23.8 4.9 3.8
4 Tre Mann CHA 18.7 3.8 4.0
5 Brandon Miller CHA 14.6 3.7 2.6
6 Naz Reid MIN 13.2 5.5 2.1
7 Miles Bridges CHA 13.0 5.9 2.2
8 Luka Garza MIN 12.0 4.9 1.1
9 Donte DiVincenzo MIN 11.7 3.1 3.6
10 Rudy Gobert MIN 11.3 9.7 1.6
11 Josh Minott MIN 10.8 4.7 1.5
12 Jaden McDaniels MIN 9.8 3.3 1.9
13 Cody Martin CHA 9.3 4.2 1.3
14 Nickeil Alexander-Walker MIN 8.7 2.7 2.6
15 Grant Williams CHA 8.4 3.3 2.3
16 Tidjane Salaun CHA 8.0 4.5 1.5
17 Rob Dillingham MIN 7.6 1.9 4.1
18 Seth Curry CHA 7.2 2.3 1.4
19 Mike Conley MIN 7.2 2.5 3.3
20 Josh Green CHA 5.8 2.1 1.1
21 Terrence Shannon Jr. MIN 5.3 2.1 1.7
22 Moussa Diabate CHA 5.1 4.9 0.9
23 KJ Simpson CHA 4.3 1.8 1.6
24 PJ Dozier MIN 3.9 1.2 1.0
25 Vasilije Micic CHA 3.7 1.9 1.8
26 Taj Gibson CHA 3.3 2.8 0.5
27 Joe Ingles MIN 2.6 1.3 1.8
28 Jared Rhoden CHA 2.4 1.6 0.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.