NBA games

NY @ HOU

NBA Toyota Center (Houston) ·Final
97–109
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
NY2630192297
HOU31302028109

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (HOU) / 10 (NY) games this season
NY away
home HOU
57% 43%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jalen Brunson S 42 29 3 8
OG Anunoby S 40 21 6 2
Karl-Anthony Towns S 32 17 19 0
Mikal Bridges S 40 15 3 0
Josh Hart S 38 12 4 7
Tyler Kolek 6 3 0 0
Jericho Sims 16 0 4 1
Miles McBride 26 0 0 2
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Alperen Sengun S 33 25 14 5
Fred VanVleet S 36 19 2 5
Jalen Green S 32 15 4 3
Dillon Brooks S 31 13 3 0
Amen Thompson 33 12 9 3
Tari Eason 25 7 5 1
Reed Sheppard 14 7 2 0
Jabari Smith Jr. S 22 7 6 1
Steven Adams 14 4 5 3

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jalen Green · Free Throw (1 pts) · 11:24 Q1
"Jalen Green makes free throw 1 of 2"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Alperen Sengun HOU
13%
2 Jalen Green HOU
12%
3 Jalen Brunson NY
11%
4 Mikal Bridges NY
11%
5 Karl-Anthony Towns NY
10%
6 Jabari Smith Jr. HOU
10%
7 OG Anunoby NY
9%
8 Dillon Brooks HOU
9%
9 Josh Hart NY
8%
10 Fred VanVleet HOU
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
10%
Dunk
12%
Free Throw
23%
Jumper
21%
Layup
34%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jalen Brunson NY 24.7 3.0 5.5
2 Jalen Green HOU 21.0 4.4 2.9
3 Karl-Anthony Towns NY 20.6 10.5 2.7
4 Alperen Sengun HOU 17.6 10.0 3.7
5 Mikal Bridges NY 14.8 4.0 2.7
6 Miles McBride NY 14.7 2.4 2.9
7 Jabari Smith Jr. HOU 12.2 7.0 1.7
8 OG Anunoby NY 12.0 4.2 1.9
9 Dillon Brooks HOU 11.4 3.9 1.4
10 Amen Thompson HOU 11.3 5.5 1.9
11 Fred VanVleet HOU 11.0 2.9 5.6
12 Josh Hart NY 10.1 6.8 3.3
13 Tari Eason HOU 9.2 4.5 1.6
14 Cameron Payne NY 8.6 2.2 3.3
15 Tyler Kolek NY 7.3 1.7 2.2
16 Cam Whitmore HOU 6.9 2.1 1.3
17 Pacome Dadiet NY 5.1 1.8 0.5
18 Reed Sheppard HOU 4.8 1.8 1.7
19 Aaron Holiday HOU 4.6 1.2 1.0
20 Jock Landale HOU 4.4 2.4 0.8
21 Jeff Green HOU 3.5 2.1 0.9
22 Steven Adams HOU 3.1 4.1 1.0
23 Jericho Sims NY 3.0 4.5 0.5
24 Ariel Hukporti NY 2.4 2.6 0.4
25 Jae'Sean Tate HOU 2.0 1.6 0.6
26 Jacob Toppin NY 1.8 1.0 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.