NBA games

SAC @ MIA

NBA Kaseya Center ·Final
111–110
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
SAC22263726111
MIA25361732110

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (MIA) / 10 (SAC) games this season
SAC away
home MIA
50% 50%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
De'Aaron Fox S 37 28 6 5
DeMar DeRozan S 36 26 3 6
Domantas Sabonis S 38 16 16 7
Keegan Murray S 39 14 6 1
Malik Monk 24 12 1 0
Keon Ellis S 29 7 3 2
Trey Lyles 16 5 1 0
Jordan McLaughlin 11 3 2 1
Alex Len 10 0 1 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jimmy Butler III S 36 27 2 6
Tyler Herro S 34 27 6 3
Bam Adebayo S 36 16 8 5
Pelle Larsson 25 13 2 2
Terry Rozier S 30 10 5 4
Duncan Robinson 14 9 3 3
Nikola Jovic S 12 4 1 0
Alec Burks 13 2 0 0
Thomas Bryant 12 2 5 0
Josh Richardson 21 0 2 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Tyler Herro · Free Throw (1 pts) · 11:28 Q1
"Tyler Herro makes free throw 1 of 2"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jimmy Butler III MIA
13%
2 Domantas Sabonis SAC
12%
3 DeMar DeRozan SAC
12%
4 De'Aaron Fox SAC
11%
5 Keegan Murray SAC
11%
6 Tyler Herro MIA
10%
7 Bam Adebayo MIA
9%
8 Nikola Jovic MIA
8%
9 Doug McDermott SAC
7%
10 Terry Rozier MIA
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
10%
Dunk
21%
Free Throw
9%
Jumper
23%
Layup
37%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Domantas Sabonis SAC 22.7 12.5 6.4
2 De'Aaron Fox SAC 22.5 5.6 5.2
3 DeMar DeRozan SAC 21.8 4.6 4.3
4 Tyler Herro MIA 19.4 4.6 4.2
5 Jimmy Butler III MIA 17.2 4.9 4.1
6 Bam Adebayo MIA 14.2 7.0 2.4
7 Keegan Murray SAC 14.1 6.2 2.1
8 Terry Rozier MIA 14.1 4.3 3.9
9 Malik Monk SAC 12.2 3.5 2.7
10 Jaime Jaquez Jr. MIA 9.6 6.0 2.6
11 Nikola Jovic MIA 8.2 3.3 2.1
12 Keon Ellis SAC 7.0 2.7 1.7
13 Alec Burks MIA 6.9 2.4 1.5
14 Haywood Highsmith MIA 6.2 3.3 0.8
15 Pelle Larsson MIA 6.0 1.7 1.6
16 Thomas Bryant MIA 5.4 3.0 0.8
17 Duncan Robinson MIA 5.3 1.4 1.1
18 Kel'el Ware MIA 5.3 3.7 0.6
19 Trey Lyles SAC 4.7 3.4 0.8
20 Doug McDermott SAC 4.5 1.4 0.6
21 Jordan McLaughlin SAC 4.3 1.6 1.8
22 Dru Smith MIA 3.8 2.1 1.6
23 Alex Len SAC 3.2 3.6 1.0
24 Kevin Love MIA 3.0 0.6 0.4
25 Mason Jones SAC 2.8 2.0 0.7
26 Isaac Jones SAC 2.4 1.5 0.6
27 Colby Jones SAC 2.0 0.8 0.9

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.