NBA games

MEM @ BKN

NBA Barclays Center ·Final
104–106
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MEM30193025104
BKN23273323106

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (BKN) / 10 (MEM) games this season
MEM away
home BKN
50% 50%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Zach Edey S 29 25 12 1
Ja Morant S 33 25 5 9
Jaren Jackson Jr. S 32 15 5 1
Scotty Pippen Jr. 31 14 4 3
Santi Aldama S 31 9 6 5
Jake LaRavia 32 6 5 6
Jaylen Wells S 33 6 5 3
Jay Huff 8 2 2 0
Brandon Clarke 11 2 0 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Dennis Schroder S 34 20 2 6
Cameron Johnson S 36 20 3 2
Dorian Finney-Smith S 28 17 6 3
Jalen Wilson 28 13 6 4
Cam Thomas S 34 13 2 6
Nic Claxton S 27 10 8 3
Keon Johnson 21 6 4 3
Shake Milton 12 5 4 0
Ziaire Williams 21 2 2 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Ja Morant · 3PT (3 pts) · 10:55 Q1
"Ja Morant makes 25-foot three point jumper (Jaylen Wells assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Ja Morant MEM
16%
2 Cam Thomas BKN
15%
3 Dennis Schroder BKN
11%
4 Zach Edey MEM
11%
5 Jaren Jackson Jr. MEM
11%
6 Jaylen Wells MEM
9%
7 Dorian Finney-Smith BKN
9%
8 Santi Aldama MEM
9%
9 Cameron Johnson BKN
8%
10 Brandon Clarke MEM
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
10%
Dunk
8%
Free Throw
10%
Jumper
33%
Layup
40%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Cam Thomas BKN 23.4 3.7 3.3
2 Ja Morant MEM 22.1 6.5 8.4
3 Jaren Jackson Jr. MEM 20.9 5.6 1.6
4 Dennis Schroder BKN 20.0 3.2 6.6
5 Cameron Johnson BKN 16.9 4.3 3.1
6 Santi Aldama MEM 13.8 6.6 3.2
7 Jaylen Wells MEM 11.6 3.6 2.1
8 Scotty Pippen Jr. MEM 11.2 3.1 5.4
9 Dorian Finney-Smith BKN 10.2 4.3 1.8
10 Ziaire Williams BKN 10.2 4.5 1.6
11 Jalen Wilson BKN 10.1 3.3 2.2
12 Zach Edey MEM 10.0 6.5 1.1
13 Jake LaRavia MEM 9.5 6.0 2.8
14 Nic Claxton BKN 9.4 7.2 1.9
15 Jay Huff MEM 9.0 3.7 1.0
16 Keon Johnson BKN 5.6 2.9 1.0
17 John Konchar MEM 5.4 4.2 1.1
18 Shake Milton BKN 4.9 1.4 1.3
19 Brandon Clarke MEM 4.8 2.6 0.9
20 Tyrese Martin BKN 4.0 1.9 0.8
21 Jaylen Martin BKN 3.9 1.2 0.5
22 Yuki Kawamura MEM 3.0 1.0 2.0
23 Colin Castleton MEM 2.7 2.4 1.2
24 Yongxi Cui BKN 1.9 0.8 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.