NBA games

BOS @ ATL

NBA State Farm Arena ·Final
123–93
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
BOS35402820123
ATL3023221893

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (ATL) / 10 (BOS) games this season
BOS away
home ATL
71% 29%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jayson Tatum S 30 28 6 9
Derrick White S 29 21 6 6
Payton Pritchard 25 18 3 4
Jrue Holiday S 24 16 3 2
Neemias Queta S 23 10 7 0
Sam Hauser 20 10 2 1
Al Horford S 22 9 5 3
JD Davison 6 3 0 0
Luke Kornet 16 2 7 0
Xavier Tillman 9 2 3 2
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jalen Johnson S 31 20 11 4
Onyeka Okongwu 23 18 10 0
Zaccharie Risacher S 30 15 3 2
David Roddy 29 11 6 3
Garrison Mathews 26 10 0 2
Dyson Daniels S 24 8 2 3
Keaton Wallace 21 6 4 2
Clint Capela S 17 2 5 1
Trae Young S 23 2 0 6
Dominick Barlow 8 1 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jalen Johnson · Free Throw (1 pts) · 11:43 Q1
"Jalen Johnson makes free throw 1 of 2"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jalen Johnson ATL
14%
2 Trae Young ATL
11%
3 Clint Capela ATL
11%
4 Jayson Tatum BOS
10%
5 Luke Kornet BOS
10%
6 Dyson Daniels ATL
9%
7 Zaccharie Risacher ATL
9%
8 Derrick White BOS
9%
9 Al Horford BOS
8%
10 Jrue Holiday BOS
8%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
20%
Dunk
5%
Free Throw
22%
Jumper
29%
Layup
24%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jayson Tatum BOS 26.8 7.2 5.4
2 Trae Young ATL 23.3 4.2 10.4
3 Jalen Johnson ATL 20.0 8.9 4.6
4 Derrick White BOS 18.6 4.3 3.7
5 Payton Pritchard BOS 15.7 3.3 3.7
6 Dyson Daniels ATL 12.8 4.7 2.7
7 Jrue Holiday BOS 12.4 3.4 2.6
8 Onyeka Okongwu ATL 10.9 5.3 1.5
9 Zaccharie Risacher ATL 10.5 3.9 1.5
10 David Roddy ATL 10.4 5.4 2.0
11 Clint Capela ATL 8.7 6.6 1.2
12 Garrison Mathews ATL 8.3 1.6 1.4
13 Sam Hauser BOS 8.2 4.6 1.4
14 Al Horford BOS 7.8 4.1 2.0
15 Larry Nance Jr. ATL 7.4 3.6 1.4
16 Luke Kornet BOS 6.8 4.7 1.4
17 Neemias Queta BOS 5.6 4.9 1.2
18 Keaton Wallace ATL 5.6 1.6 1.5
19 Jordan Walsh BOS 5.2 2.1 0.8
20 Xavier Tillman BOS 5.0 3.6 1.0
21 JD Davison BOS 4.6 1.4 1.7
22 Jaden Springer BOS 2.9 1.0 0.9
23 Mouhamed Gueye ATL 2.9 2.2 0.6
24 Baylor Scheierman BOS 2.6 1.1 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.